Why Gold Behave Differently this Round? (May 2012)

When market sentiment was bearish, equities market would slump, just like what we seen for past few days. Global markets suffered yet another blow due to the uncertainties surrounding EU, where Greece may potentially exit European Union. Would Greece finally exit EU? This is an interesting yet important questions for investors.

The headlines have been on the EU crisis recently, overshadowing the highly speculated Malaysia general election's date. Well, now would be a tough time for our Prime Minister to call on an election amid the gloomy global outlook. Maybe, the best time to hold an election already gone!!!

Anyway, another interesting issue was the slump in Gold prices. Curiously, many investors questioning the different trend for gold prices. Normally, it will spike up along with the risk level of global equities market, together with USD. Theoretically, gold and USD would over-perform other asset classes during bad times. Yes, USD had already appreciated against a basket of currencies for a record 12 straight days. However, bullion erased its 2012 gains this week while investors are reducing gold holdings for a 3rd month, the longest stretch since 2004.

So, which is the Safe Heaven now?

Based on that fact, it seems like USD is the only safe heaven asset class that investors trusted now. Frankly speaking, Finance Malaysia don't know why gold behave differently this round. Anyway, we came out with the following potential explanations:

1. Actually, we really don't know how to value gold. Is it expensive or cheap? There is no benchmark on gold prices. Because of that, gold price tends to be speculative in nature. Currently, hedge funds are the least bullish on metal since December 2008, and they are the one who drove up gold prices. Is this the time for them to take-profit?
   
   
2. While there is no benchmark for gold, the strength of USD was based on US economy. We can't deny that US is recovering now, amid at a slow pace. Also, without QE3, why USD should stay low? With that reason, investors might chose USD than gold, as the potential is greater.
   
   
3. Please don't forget that many European governments had the greatest gold holdings in the world. For sure, ECB needs to pump in more liquidity into market. Where does the money comes from? When you're holding many gold and you need money, what would you do? Of course, cash in by selling your golds.

Even said so, many analysts are predicting a rebound for bullion. While RBS, ABN Amro and Barclays cut their gold forecast in May, Goldman expects prices to rise by 25% to $1,940 an ounce in 12 months. Billionaire investors, George Soros is favoring gold and he may gave gold investors the confidence. Good Luck.

Who can Save GREECE? (Feb 2012)

It's the time again for Greece to convince its counterparts that they are serious in cutting budget deficits. By doing so, Greece was to put on the lifeline (bailout) by European Union (EU) once again. The discussion of whether to save or not to save Greece had been dragging for one week time now. Why?

In Chinese, we say "we cannot see people die by not lending our hand". That's why China said they will help when the time arrives. The question is when is the right time? Until Greece go bankrupt? Or,  until Greece left EU?

Who can save Greece?

The answer to this very important question is very obvious. In Christian, they always emphasize on "we should take responsibilities on what we did", right? So, the solution lies in Greece hands. Not the country, but, the citizen, the people of Greece. It's time for them to come back to reality. Let's take Malaysia as a benchmark, they are working fewer hours than us, yet they are earning much better than us. GDP per capita of Greece is more than twice of our figures. How are they going to sustain whatever they are having now, such as attractive pension scheme and healthcare?

Technically, Greece already bankrupt with Debt to GDP of over 140. What does this mean? For every RM1 they earn, they spent RM1.40. It's overspent, it's over leveraged. It's time for Greece to unite together, shoulder the responsibilities with their Government, by taking pay cut, reform the pension scheme and healthcare system. By doing so, then only Greece can come out from debt crisis. Although the period is difficult, they must did it, don't procrastinate anymore. The longer they drag, the debt may snowball until a stage where "too big to burst".

Finance Malaysia really hopes Greece can come out of the bad times by themselves proudly. This goes to Italy, Belgium, Ireland, and Portugal too. We shall support Greece by visiting the beautiful country (of course, until all the riots were end).

The end of Europe’s liquidity crisis? (Dec 2011)

Well, many people already bored with the on-going Europe debt crisis, and subsequently liquidity crisis. This is like what we have seen in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapses, which drags down the whole financial systems globally through liquidity crisis. The different is between company and country. Maybe some of us doesn't know how this chain effects rattles the global markets. So, let us start here.

The European Organisation chart of Debts

The root of the problem plaguing the market right now is Europe debt crisis, where Greece and few other European countries were highly in debts. They just simply cannot generate enough revenue (taxes) to support the economy itself. So, they resorted to seek for funding via borrowing by issuing sovereign bonds to finance their day to day operations. However, the debt is piling up intensively after 2008 global financial crisis until recently. Because the government does not have money, their bonds may go into default. So, they were forced to borrow some more, but with higher interest this round.

For them, this kind of measures are simply to prolong the problems and those debts were still there charging higher and higher interest. They are buying time, hoping their economies will survive and growing in the future to repay back whatever they borrow now. What a pretty picture?

Who is the main borrower?

Congratulations, the winners go to French banks. They are the main source of funding for these troubled ladden countries. As long as these banks charges those countries interests, everything is good for banks but bad for countries. What if those countries really go bankrupt? French banks may follow suits too.

So, the pretty solution is to write-off from the book of borrowers (French banks). Why French banks still need to accept the offer? Depending on the % of write-off, banks at least got something better than nothing. Right?

How the liquidity problem set in?

Debt writing-down means that the assets of French banks were being slashed. Last month, there is a 50% hair-cut for Greek debts and the amount will reflects in the books of these banks in the next few quarters. Now, you know why rating agencies are cutting 15 European banks' rating last week?

Sigh... But, not yet ends?

After the hair-cut, banks may having liquidity issues next. They doesn't have enough capital to borrow and this may dampened the whole financial system, thus, businesses and public facing difficulties to finance their expansion or consumption. Don't worry, angels were always by our side.

Angels (not Santa) come before Xmas...

Last week, 6 central banks globally take an important step toward dealing with the problems in Europe by pledging to continue provide funding to global banks (especially European banks). These angels are US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. They would lower the pricing on US dollar liquidity swap arrangements effectively easing the liquidity problems faced by European banks.

This action dissolves one of the stumbling blocks in global financial system. Risk plays a role when one bank lends to another. In the current environment, banks likely don't believe that they are being compensated enough for the risks they face by lending out. With the dollar swap lines, banks can instead go to their central banks for short-term loans, provided that they have good collateral. Win-win situations? Yup. I think so because one can solve the liquidity problem, while US successfully creates a huge demand for its sliding currency.

Special Coverage: Web of Europe’s Crisis

$1 trillion rescue package by European Union.
Global share markets reacting positively towards EU latest move.
Euro gains 2.7% in one day boosted by EU and IMF.
European markets posted best one day gain this year.

Sounds GOOD?

This is the power of UNITY showed by EU countries during this round of financial meltdown. After a frantic talk on Monday, European officials agreed the 16 euro nations would put up $572 billion in new loans and $78 billion under an existing lending program. Meanwhile, IMF will pump in another $325 billion, adding up to a rescue package of nearly $1 trillion.

However, many economists and analysts are still concern as to how the money would be dispensed and on what terms. A lot of them citing the euro rescue won’t solve the main problems plaguing the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy, which is low growth and weak balance sheets.

Let’s enlarge the chart below (you must) to have a clear picture of the debt-ridden countries, taken from www.nytimes.com

Now, you still believe that EU nations are really so UNITED?

The reality is that the Germans, French and the rest of Europe have little choice, but to bail out the troubled members to prevent them from failing. With cross-border banking and borrowing, many countries on the periphery of Europe owe vast sums to one another, as well as to richer neighbors like Germany and France. A default by a single nation would send other countries tumbling.

Who is the “Tai-Ko” (number 1)?
Congratulations to GREECE, who owes:

• $9.7 billion to Portugal
• $8.5 billion to Ireland
• $6.9 billion to Italy

Second layer of Debt:
Portugal owes $86 billion to Spain.
Nearly 1/3 of Portugal’s debt is held by Spain.
With unemployment at 20%, Spain is among the weakest economy in Europe.

And, Spain owes:

• $31 billion to Italy
• $30 billion to Ireland
• $28 billion to Portugal

Third layer of Debt:
Collectively, these PIIGS owes:

• $704 billion to Germany
• $911 billion to France
• $418 billion to Britain (Here’s how Britain also came into picture)

Interestingly, Italy owes France $511 billion, or 20% of French GDP!!!
Now, I am not surprise that “French fries Italy’s Pizza”…

Conclusion: German and France are FORCED to bail out PIIGS.

Focus of the Week: GREECE crisis – World wide version

With Greece having trouble, it is now pulling other assets too:

• US Dow Jones plunged as much as 9% on Thursday before recovering to end 3% down.
• MSCI’s emerging markets index lost 11% since mid-April.
• Crude oil price has fallen 14% over the past week, with Greek crisis putting the brakes on speculators as well as fears for Chinese growth.
• Commodities indexes have lost 5% in a week.

The question in all investors mind this week would be:

When would this stopped?

 

To contain the infections, Euro zone leaders decided on Friday they have special measures ready before financial markets open on Monday to prevent financial turmoil in Greece spreading to other countries such as Spain and Portugal.

 

However, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso declined to give any details of the proposals, which will be presented to all 27 EU finance ministers for approval on Sunday.

 

 

The EU summit, called to discuss longer-term efforts to coordinate economic policies, turned into a crisis-management session, with the euro facing its stiffest test since its debut in 1999.

 

High deficits coupled with low economic growth has threaten Portugal, Spain and Ireland to follow the crisis leading path of Greece, most probably forcing them to seek financial aid too.

 

“People worry that if Greece is Bear Stearns, Portugal is Lehman and Spain AIG”. BNP Paribas said during past week, a phrase that gained much circulation last week.

PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) can’t fly – the Greece problem. An article by Tan Sri Lin See-Yan saying that these countries need to seek IMF help before it was too late.

 

Hopefully, the share markets around the world would stop falling as intended by EU. 

Economy: Cash Greets Greece

After months of speculations and rounds of discussions, all the European Stars reunite at last, as shown in EU flag. On 12th April 2010, the euro zone nations have agreed on a Euro30 billion rescue package for their heavily-indebted partner - Greece. The finance ministers of the 16 European Union nations, who have euro as their common currency, finalized the details of their bail out plan for Greece.

The annoucement comes amid mounting concern in the financial markets about the cash strapped Greek government's ability to service its staggering debts of more than Euro400 billion, thus, pulling down euro to very low level recently.

How was the package like?

Under the package, it will cover a 3-year fixed 5% interest loan and the amount of the loan could be increased over the next 12 months. The European loan is likely to be shared proportionally based on the breakdown of the ECB's capital. The IMF will complete the plan with a Euro15 billion loan at an adjustable rate based on the special drawing rights rate.

Yield falls...

The yield on the country's 12-month T-bill plummeted to 5.28%, suggesting the threat of a near-term default had been lifted. Today, Greece is going to auction Euro1.2 billion T-bills, which is now deemed as "Zero-Default Risk". Wow!!!

Uncertainties remain...

Although the emergency aid fund may reassure investors and make them more willing to continue buying Greek bonds, uncertainties remain over the long-term prospects for reducing Greece's debt mountain, which have dented confidence in the euro.

The Greek official said the government would decide within a few days whether to ask for the aid, depending on whether market interest rate would subside. Anyway, 5% interest bearing loan provided, is well below current market rates of about 7.3%. Assistance for subsequent years would be decided later.

What's next?

Over the next 2 years, Greek economic activity is likely to continue to decline. Euro is expected to appreciate with French and German bonds yield to increase slightly. I think that UK could be the next concern for the market.

Source: BNP paribas, Reuters, WorldNews, Bloomberg