RHBRI: Market Outlook & Strategy 2H2012

In our view, the equity market will likely be stuck in a range-bound trading pattern for now, but will likely trend up as global economic uncertainties clear out towards the later part of the year. Investors’ key worries include :

1. worsening of the euro-debt crisis that remains unresolved
2. fears of China’s and India’s economies crashing down into a hard landing; and
3. the risk of US falling off the “fiscal cliff”.

External Volatility And Impending Election 2 Key Headwinds

On the home front, the major event to watch out for is the impending general election that could also create volatility to the local bourse given the uncertain election outcome. Nevertheless, we believe the market will eventually trend higher towards end-2012, premised on:

1. the ECB making a more decisive move to mutualise the debts of Eurozone governments;
2. China policymakers ease policies substantially and its economic growth re-accelerates;
3. US Congressional leaders cobble together some deals to mitigate the impact from the “fiscal cliff” and allay the fear of its economy falling off the cliff; and
4. domestically, the general election produces a result where the ruling coalition party remains in control of the government.

Meanwhile, global financial markets are still likely to be awash with liquidity as central banks in advance countries have pledged to maintain extremely loose monetary policy and could unveil more quantitative easing programmes to support economic growth should the situation warrant. 


On the home front, the economy is more resilient than feared and we expect real GDP growth to stage a modest rebound to 4.7% yoy in the 2H, from +4.4% estimated for the 1H. In the same vein, net EPS growth for the market is projected to recover to +10.8% in 2012 before moderating to +7.8% in 2013. Consequently, we are maintaining our end-2012 FBM KLCI target at 1,650 based on 14.6x 2013 earnings.

Given global macro headwinds and general eletion risks on the home front, we believe it pays for the more discerning investors to hold some defensive stocks that have strong cash flows to pay sustainable dividends in their portfolios. In addition, we believe investors would still need to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness in order to outperform the market. Sector-wise, our key overweight are telecommunications, consumer and banking, although we also have an overweight stance on the utilities, gaming and semiconductor sectors.


Source: RHB Research Institute

Euro 2012 Football Championship: Poland's Economy Scores

It's football season again. This round we have EURO 2012 Championship which will kick off on 8th June 2012. Are you ready? Before that, let us look at the championship from financial perspective. Don't care who will win the championship, Poland already emerged as the winner financially. Why?

The UEFA European Football Championship has taken place every 4 years since 1960. For the first time in history, Poland and Ukraine have scored the chance to co-host the Euro 2012 Football Championship. Despite high set-up costs for the two emerging economies, both countries are likely to experience long-term economic benefits.

The Statistic and Requirements:

• Estimated 670,000 football fans will pack into the new stadiums
• Around 1.5million spectators at fan zones only
• Minimum requirement capacity of 30,000 to 50,000 spectators for infrastructure and modern stadiums
• Sufficient parking possibilities, hospitality facilities, luxury hotels and training facilities was needed
• Required transportation infrastructure linking the host cities must be modern, well developed and meet UEFA's high quality expectations

Challenging Requirements Boost Economic Growth

As a result of the increased government spending, Poland's unemployment rate has improved significantly. In addition to modernization costs, safety costs of almost USD 1 billion will push the total bill for the event to over USD 10 billion in Poland's case. The majority of the modernization bill has been allocated to motorway construction to connect the hosting cities and surrounding countries.

Poland to Benefits from Euro 2012

The investment spending of over USD 10 billion will be beneficial for Poland, as long as the increase in GDP directly or indirectly allocated to the football championship tops the costs. Four main sources of possible additional income exist:

1. Extra spending by tourists and local population during the event
2. Extra spending generated after the event as a result of tourists visiting the host countries and cities
3. Benefits resulting from the upgrade of the various infrastructure programs
4. Benefits resulting from presenting the country and its economy in a positive light

Based on outcomes of earlier football championships, a study commissioned by the UEFA estimated extra spending during the event at around USD 300 million and USD 250 million thereafter. However, it is likely that, for emerging countries such as Poland, the benefits of major sporting events are much greater than for developed countries. While the publicity from major sport events is the same for developed and emerging economies, the marginal profit is expected to vary substantially. Developed economies are already well known as holiday and business destinations when hosting such events, but emerging countries may attract many more investors and tourists.

Long-Term Benefits for the Equity Market

Since very few major sporting events have been hosted by emerging market countries, the possible impact on the economy and on the stock market is difficult to estimate. However, it is likely that in addition to the attractive fundamentals of emerging markets such as high growth, low debt and favorable demographics, the access presented to a wide range of potential investors and tourists could give the country's economic development a significant boost and result in sustainable long-term growth perspectives. Poland and the Ukraine are likely very much aware of the possible long-term opportunities arising from hosting the UEFA European Football Championship this year and aim to create history together by hosting this major event.

Source: Credit Suisse

Europe’s Woes Flood Wall Street—But Not the Economy? (May 2012)

After months of buildup, Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis has finally wreaked havoc on the U.S. stock market, as a wave of anxiety has prompted a major sell-off on Wall Street. We’ve seen a dramatically “risk off” environment with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 3.52% — the biggest one-week decline since November — and the S&P 500 falling 4.3%. Among the hardest hit stocks were small caps and tech, with the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite falling 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively. To further underscore the risk-off environment, the yield on the 10-year Treasury still appears to be searching for a bottom, finishing at 1.702%, but falling below 1.700% intraday this week — a modern-era low.

Spring Swoon?

History may not be repeating itself, but it certainly is rhyming. Like the spring of 2010 and the spring of 2011, investors’ fears are coming to fruition and we are once again experiencing a “spring swoon.” Stocks are selling off and junk-bond spreads are widening, as concerns about the euro-zone crisis are weighing heavily on investors. While some strategists believe Germany may be softening its stance, yields on some EU periphery nations are skyrocketing and rumors abound that the European Central Bank is preparing for a Greek departure from the European Monetary Union. The problem seems to be fundamental to the structure of the EU and therefore there are no easy solutions: while there is one shared currency, there is no true central government with one shared ability to levy taxes or issue debt that all countries are responsible for.

A federal Europe and closer fiscal integration is the ideal solution but it does not appear to be close at hand. The fiscal compact was agreed to in principal in December 2011, which is an important step toward that goal, but it is still awaiting approval by some euro-zone members.

However, the U.S. economy continues to chug along, albeit slowly. Initial jobless claims remain well below 400,000. The Consumer Price Index was flat for April. In fact, the “oil choke collar” has disengaged, with crude oil falling nearly 5% this week to finish at $91.48 per barrel. New residential construction was higher than expected in April as well. One area of disappointment was leading economic indicators, which were slightly negative for the first time in six months, down 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. This is largely attributable to a decrease in the number of building permits and an uptick in the number of unemployment claims.

Looser Credit

Last week’s release of the minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee’s April meeting offers further insight into the U.S. economic picture. While generally bullish in its observation of measured economic growth, the FOMC highlighted a bright spot for the economy that may have been overlooked: banks are loosening credit standards. As reported in the minutes, “Bank credit slowed in March but expanded at a solid pace in the first quarter as a whole. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices conducted in April indicated that, in the aggregate, domestic banks eased slightly their lending standards on core loans—C&I, real estate and consumer loans—and experienced somewhat stronger demand for such loans in the first quarter of 2012.” The Fed’s poll includes 60 large domestic banks and 24 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks.

And lower yields mean lower borrowing costs, which are stimulative. This lower cost of borrowing combined with long-awaited and much-needed easing of credit standards could be the one-two punch that the U.S. economy needs to continue to expand.

It is imperative that the situation be monitored closely but with the recognition that, for longer time horizons, higher-quality risk assets with substantial yields such as dividend-paying stocks continue to be attractive investment options. Dividends, which offer the benefit of getting paid to wait for better market conditions, may help steer portfolios until we see calmer seas.

Source: Allianz Global Investors

The end of Europe’s liquidity crisis? (Dec 2011)

Well, many people already bored with the on-going Europe debt crisis, and subsequently liquidity crisis. This is like what we have seen in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapses, which drags down the whole financial systems globally through liquidity crisis. The different is between company and country. Maybe some of us doesn't know how this chain effects rattles the global markets. So, let us start here.

The European Organisation chart of Debts

The root of the problem plaguing the market right now is Europe debt crisis, where Greece and few other European countries were highly in debts. They just simply cannot generate enough revenue (taxes) to support the economy itself. So, they resorted to seek for funding via borrowing by issuing sovereign bonds to finance their day to day operations. However, the debt is piling up intensively after 2008 global financial crisis until recently. Because the government does not have money, their bonds may go into default. So, they were forced to borrow some more, but with higher interest this round.

For them, this kind of measures are simply to prolong the problems and those debts were still there charging higher and higher interest. They are buying time, hoping their economies will survive and growing in the future to repay back whatever they borrow now. What a pretty picture?

Who is the main borrower?

Congratulations, the winners go to French banks. They are the main source of funding for these troubled ladden countries. As long as these banks charges those countries interests, everything is good for banks but bad for countries. What if those countries really go bankrupt? French banks may follow suits too.

So, the pretty solution is to write-off from the book of borrowers (French banks). Why French banks still need to accept the offer? Depending on the % of write-off, banks at least got something better than nothing. Right?

How the liquidity problem set in?

Debt writing-down means that the assets of French banks were being slashed. Last month, there is a 50% hair-cut for Greek debts and the amount will reflects in the books of these banks in the next few quarters. Now, you know why rating agencies are cutting 15 European banks' rating last week?

Sigh... But, not yet ends?

After the hair-cut, banks may having liquidity issues next. They doesn't have enough capital to borrow and this may dampened the whole financial system, thus, businesses and public facing difficulties to finance their expansion or consumption. Don't worry, angels were always by our side.

Angels (not Santa) come before Xmas...

Last week, 6 central banks globally take an important step toward dealing with the problems in Europe by pledging to continue provide funding to global banks (especially European banks). These angels are US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. They would lower the pricing on US dollar liquidity swap arrangements effectively easing the liquidity problems faced by European banks.

This action dissolves one of the stumbling blocks in global financial system. Risk plays a role when one bank lends to another. In the current environment, banks likely don't believe that they are being compensated enough for the risks they face by lending out. With the dollar swap lines, banks can instead go to their central banks for short-term loans, provided that they have good collateral. Win-win situations? Yup. I think so because one can solve the liquidity problem, while US successfully creates a huge demand for its sliding currency.