I am trying to develop a way of predicting stagflation on a somewhat quantitative way (I mean, no gut feeling arguments). This far, the approach is still in development mode and I don't really know what the results in the figure tells us. The idea, however, is that the height of the columns in some way is proportional to the probability of stagflation (in one or more major economies) in the near future (within 6 months or so)). Anyway, if we can believe the "model", then it means that the probability of staflation has drastically increased over the last three months, particularly in February.
