4 Interesting Questions on Budget 2012

Well, well, well... The newly announced Budget 2012 seems to be a very holistic one, which covers almost everyone (even the opposition MPs). In the budget, a total of RM232.8 billions was allocated to implement all Government development plans, which include the projects and programs under various plans, focusing on the well-being of the rakyat. But, there are a few interesting questions that Finance Malaysia would like to highlight here.

1) Is it too optimistic?

As we all know, the external environment is becoming more challenging once again due to slowdown in US, Europe and Japan (if not double-dip recession). This would definitely impact Malaysia as manufacturing sector still playing a crucial role in our country's growth. While IMF is revising downward the global growth next year, our Government is projecting a 5 - 5.5% growth this year, and 5 - 6% for 2012. I think we should be very happy if Malaysia can grow more than 4.5% for 2011 and 2012.

2) Budget Deficit to come down?

Taking into account the estimated revenue and expenditure, the Federal Government deficit in 2012 is expected to improve to 4.7% of GDP compared with 5.4% in 2011. As we all know, Petronas is the main contributor to Government's revenue, which is heavily relies on crude oil prices. How much is the estimated price Government based on 2012? It does not stated. Of course, it should be lower than current year. Am I correct?

3) Construction sector to be one of the main growth engine?

By setting a 7% growth forecast for Construction sector next year, is it too optimistic (yet again)? Given the current state of delayed tendering process, land acquisition dispute and change of project owners (MRT project), I doubt the execution part of the beautifully layout projects. Do remember that Hong Kong and Singapore takes more than 5 years just for planning for their MRT projects. And, if we can kick-start so soon, sure Malaysia Boleh!!!

4) Is it really Rakyat-centric?

Just as rakyat coping with high living cost, especially in urban areas, there is some relieves after the Government's latest various incentives and rebates. Subsidies on some of the basic food items were continued. Concurrently, our MPs also have higher allowance. This seems like a win-win situation. However, would the Government forgot about another very important item - petrol? As promised earlier, our petrol prices are adjusted according to market price. Judging from the fallen crude oil prices lately, why Government still not yet lower petrol prices? I believe this is definitely a better and more effective way to help rakyat.

MRT at Iskandar: Is it Viable?

When everyone talk about mass rapid transit (MRT) system at KL, it's reasonable given the terrible bumper to bumper traffic jam every working days. Certainly, it creates a buzz in Malaysia with its RM50 billion price tag. Maybe because of the buzzing topic, Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA) also looking at the possibility of implementing a 500km MRT within the region which would also provide a direct link to Johor Bahru. The project is scheduled for completion by 2020. What's your reaction?

I believe many people will think the same with me - unbelievable. My jaw drops down the floor thereafter. We do not have to perform  those sophisticated calculation to judge whether the Iskandar MRT is viable or not. I came out with these 3 points.

3 Stupid Questions to ask our-self

1. Population
• KL is capital of our country, while Iskandar is a region which encompass the capital of a state
• Do you think that Iskandar has more people than than the capital of KL?
• Some more, Iskandar is 3x larger than Singapore, but with much lesser population
2. New vs Old
• KL is an not well planned city, which contributes to traffic problems now
• However, Iskandar is a new city with ample of land, with ample of time to plan. Why not take your land and time as an advantage to plan ahead?
• We don't have choice in KL, we're forced to resort to MRT
3. Alternative ways
• Well, everyone knows that MRT system is an extremely expensive project. Thus, we should source for other ways first, before considering MRT.
• With ample of vacant lands still available now, why straightaway jump to MRT?
• Also, population are not there yet, what's the urgency to build MRT now?
• Instead, we should consider the following system first: Roads, Bus, Highways, LRT, then only MRT. MRT should be the last due to higher cost.

The 5 flagship zones of Iskandar Malaysia, namely Johor Bahru City (A), Nusajaya (B), Western Gate Development (C), Eastern Gate Development (D), and Senai-Skudai (F)

Wait... What am I using? Common sense, man (without calculator in my hand).

To support my view, below is what written by OSK Research:

"We feel that the chances of the Iskandar MRT being implemented anytime soon is slim. Based on IRDA's estimated cost of RM30m/km, the entire project will work out to RM15bn which is certainly a huge sum. Although an efficient public transport network is a crucial element of Iskandar to emerge as a thriving metropolis region, we think that it is still too soon for an MRT to be built. At this juncture, we believe that the Federal Govt is probably going to focus more on the KL MRT, LRT extension and various other ETP projects to ensure that it kicks off on time before considering the Iskandar MRT."

Source: IRDA, Iskandar Malaysia website

KLCI: What the Hell is going on? + Invest Malaysia 2011

Thinking that yesterday's 13points drop is enough? Today, KLCI slumps again for the 2nd day in a row. Are you expecting it? Personally, I don't think most of us can predict the future. But, what I can say is that many investors like me would positioning our money very well, anticipating some good announcements during Invest Malaysia 2011 Conference today and tomorrow. If you're thinking the same way, Good Luck!!!

TheStar picture

Any BAD news?

Excluding foreign news, NO bad news at all in Malaysia. But, investors see the opposite side now - no good news = bad news!

Profit-taking activities set in on Malaysia market beginning this week. If you're not the one who cash out yesterday, you would probably forced to stay on holding until the "tsunami" is over. Money is washing away from the market, flowing overseas (capital outflow by foreign funds). That's why banking stocks, Genting, Petronas Chemicals took a beating today, pulling down KLCI as a result.

Souce: Yahoo! Finance

While many investors are waiting for the goodies during Invest Malaysia 2011 conference, it seems like the party is over without much excitement. First, let's us summarize the announcements made today:

1. 2nd Capital Market Masterplan (CMP2) to swell the value of the capital market to RM5.8 trillion through greater internalization from RM2 trillion now
• New dual licensing scheme to make it easier for dealers in the equity market to become licensed to trade in the derivatives market
• Increasing the number of day traders by almost 3x to enable more dealer representatives to become specialized traders
• New private retirement scheme is introduced
2. Listing of Felda Group's sugar business expected in July 2011
3. In attracting Malaysian professionals to returned, flat 15% income tax rate for 5 years is introduced

What is lacking?

Surprisingly, the Pos Malaysia's stake which is being divested by Khazanah still remained a mystery. Who would be the winner? PM:"The disposal of Pos Malaysia is now in final stage". Maybe due to this news, DRBHicom (the main contender who tipped to win the stake) falls sharply from recent high of RM2.50 to closed RM2.24 today.

Can we turnaround in 2nd-half?

1st-half (today), the impact had undeniably failed. Let's monitor the 2nd-half (tomorrow). As reported by various analysts, tomorrow's session will highlights the Greater Kuala Lumpur related projects. As such, the Mass Rail Transit (MRT) project should take to the stage, and updated on the progress of project. MRCB and Gamuda should be in focus tomorrow. But, would these counters facing the same DRBHicom's fate too?

Potential Construction Projects Flow in 2011

During 4Q 2010, there were a series of positive news brought into construction sector. These news could possibly bring some cheers for local contractors during the "award ceremony" soon. To summarize it, let us examined and explored the news highlighted in 4Q 2010 for construction sector:-

OSK Research:

• KL Mass Rapid Transit, with the cabinet approving 1 of the 3 lines proposed, which will run from Sg Buloh to Kajang. It is said that the Government will set up an SPV to fund the RM36bn job via bonds and other capital market instruments. Tenders for the Sg Buloh-Kajang line will be open in April while construction will commence in July. Gamuda-MMC JV, which was recently appointed as Project Delivery Partner, to be the ultimate beneficiary of the MRT. The JV is only allowed to tender for the tunneling works estimated at RM14bn.
• Construction of the RM5bn Warisan Merdeka development is said to be slated to commence this year for implementation in 3 phases over 10 years. Amongst the local contractors, we think IJM is in the best position to participate in the tower portion given its track record with high-rise buildings in KL city center. Green building specialist Putrajaya Perdana could also benefit from the non-tower portions.
• A feasibility study is currently being conducted to evaluate the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail and will be concluded by mid-year, which cost RM10-12bn. Magnetic levitation technology was being proposed. OSK gather that YTL Corp has made proposals for several portions of the project.
• Brazail based Vale SA, the world's largest iron ore producer will invest RM467mil in Malaysia this year. The investment will involve the construction of a maritime terminal and distribution center to transport iron ore from Teluk Rubiah, Perak. We understand that Muhibbah Engineering is the only local contractor that has been pre-qualified for some of the packages.
• Bintulu Port has been invited by Sarawak government to submit a detailed proposal for the Samalaju Port. If implemented, we think Hock Seng Lee could win some packages given its marine engineering expertise.
• Malaysia and India have signed an MOU on technical assistance for road development which could enable Malaysian contractors to participate in the latter's projects. We see IJM as the clear winner from this MOU given its track record of building more than 1,400km of roads in India.
• During the Big 5 International Building and Construction Show in Abu Dhabi, it was reported that some more than USD23bn worth of construction contracts are ready to be awarded in the UAE. We view WCT as the ultimate beneficiary from contracts flow from the UAE given its past record in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Qatar.

Post-Budget 2011 Interview with Finance Malaysia

* Please take note that this blog is for reading pleasure only, and NOT intended to offend any party.

Below are some questions posted to Finance Malaysia (FM), with some interesting reply:

Q    : Let's start off with the famous KL MRT project. Any comment?

FM : Well, this is definitely a good public transport reformations for KL citizen. However, please bare in mind that the extensions of two existing LRT lines still not yet started. Implementation is problem, not project.

Q    : How about the development of the Malaysian Rubber Board land in Sg. Buloh by EPF?
FM : The project costs RM10bil for 15 years. I don't know when EPF (Malaysians' retirement fund) role has changed to being a developer?

Q    : Malaysia's tallest building - 100-storey Warisan Merdeka. Is it necessary?
FM : So that Osama can either choose this or Twin-towers. Haha. Since EPF can be a developer, why not PNB? Malaysia Boleh spirit for all...

Q    : Existing income tax relief of up to RM6,000 extended to Private Pension Fund contributions. Good?

FM : Sounds good, but not viable. Because, first, those who afford private pension fund most likely already exceed the limit. Second, if we bought a simple life insurance, the premium plus with EPF contributions, already exceed the limit. Instead, government should separate life insurance premium with those contributions.

Q    : Wow... RM 3bil Karambunai eco-nature resort in Sabah.
FM : Yes. We have another "first" of the world, but, with RM 3bil we can buy the whole Sabah already.

Q    : Service tax increased from 5% to 6%. How would it affect us?
FM : Watch online TV, instead of Astro. 20% (5% to 6%) increase yet considered minimal as stated?

Q    : To develop football, a Football Academy will be build in Pahang. Why Pahang?
FM : First, can we revive our football team? Second, maybe Pahang is the home of prime minister (not football).

Q    : NO toll rate hike from PLUS expressway for next 5 years?
FM : I believe this is the only thing which directly benefiting me. Would it be better if this is permanent?