Thursday, October 27, 2011

Back From China!


BREAKING NEWS!!
OK, the news of today is of course the eurozone deal struck tonight by the EU leaders. A very good initiative in the right direction I think, but I am afraid it is too little and too late. I will be back on this later.
BREAKING NEWS!!


I am now back from Hangzhou and Zhejiang University and instead of dwelling on the euro area I want to write a little on my feelings about China before i forget all about it.... I have stressed the bubble tendencies in China in earlier blogs, see for instance "Go east, boys and girls!", and it is possible that we might see the start of the great deflation of this bubble now. Chinese stock prices have moved sideways for some time now, default rates in entrepreneurial hotspots such as Wenzhou are picking up and house price increases in places such as Hangzhou are starting to slow down (they say, how would I know….). Square meter prices in Hangzhou are the highest in China and average around USD4000. In prime locations, such as the gritty, run-down, noisy communist-like neighbourhood close to West-lake where I lived prices are said to be closer to USD6000/sqm. OK, Hangzhou has 6-8 million people but most of them earn very little (a busdriver earns around USD500/month, allegedly), engineering graduates perhaps USD1000/month and university professors at Zhejiang Uni., China’s third best university, seem to earn much less than those in Europe.

I do not know enough about China to give true investment advice but the similarities with Japan in the late 80s are obvious (enormous amount of currency in circulation, enormous amount of debt, a belief/dependency in/on the rest of the world buying your shit, a current world economy in agony, an enormous belief (shared by the outside world) in your competence, a culture orthogonal to everyone elses, a lot of paper-millionaires, ridiculous high-end real-estate prices, random distribution of luck/wealth, newly-rich setting the standard, copying rather than inventing,….). The counter-argument would be, “but they are so productive, flexible and efficient!”. Yes, but so were (and are) the Japanese and look at their stock market the last 20 years...

For a flavor of the great Chinese transformation from a closed communist economy to the paradise of capitalism it is today, the car in the picture, admittedly a marvelous piece of car-history, Rolls-Royce Phantom, costs more than USD 1.2 million (RMB 8 million) in China according to the Lamborghini saleswoman I talked to (a Lambo Gallardo costs a mere USD600000). During my time in Hangzhou I have seen three RR Phantom, two Gallardo, four or five Quattroporte, three Ferraris, plenty of Bentleys, Hummers and 911s and, literary, thousands of new MB S-klasse. Deng Xiaoping would be proud of his accomplishments if he had lived today!

Will Thailand flooding with Debts after this?

Oh my god. Another disaster has occurred, and this time is Thailand's turn. Finance Malaysia would like to offer condolences to Thailand for its massive damage caused by floods. This is not an ordinary floods, please read the numbers below then you will know.

  • worst floods in 50-years!!!
  • more than 300 lives gone
  • affecting nearly 9,000,000 people


Started weeks ago at upper Thailand, the floods were spreading down to its capital - Bangkok - now. Bangkok has more than 12 million population. The situation can only get worse from here and everyone is fleeing the city, searching for higher grounds and off to vacation. People are snapping up dry foods, fresh waters and daily products, hoping to brace through the difficult periods.

Will Thailand went into recession?
With Bangkok being the major engine of the country, many economists are expecting that the strong flooding in Bangkok would severely impact Thailand's GDP growth. Bank of Thailand (BOT) already downgrading their growth forecasts for this year to below 4%. Not yet negative, thanks to the first half of 2011. So, no recession yet unless there is not drastic measures taken by the newly elected government.

How serious is it?
First, the industrial parks in Ayutthaya provinces where houses many factories of multi-national companies are heavily impacted by floods. Obviously, Japanese automobile manufacturers being the hardest hit. Honda and Toyota already shut down their productions. Together with other companies situated there, their earnings sure will be affected.

Second, banks will be impacted by higher non-performing loans (NPL), in which companies and borrowers affected may not able to repay their loans.

Third, businesses in the city closed doors to prevent flash floods and riots that may happened. Domestic consumption will slow, very slow.

Forth, agriculture land was damaged. This will severely impact those rural people, and they have to takes weeks (if not months) to resume their activities.

Fifth, slowdown in sales for property developers is inevitable.

Sixth, flights and other transportation services disrupted led to earnings downgrade on companies such as airlines.


How about its impact to other countries?
While it was a bad experience for Thailand, other countries may benefiting from this episode such as Malaysia and South Korea. Why? Simply because those affected companies may swift their operations to other countries. Then, why Malaysia and Korea?

The most affected companies is from Japan, dealing in automobiles, digital camera and hard disk drive businesses. So, Japanese companies may potentially swift their operations or supply chains, either temporary or permanently, to Malaysia due to its strategic location and labor markets. 

Other than that, South Korea also is an ideal place for Japanese companies. We have seen this after the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis this year. This is not new anymore. Some interesting growth may surfaced in the automobiles and technology sector in South Korea.


What should be investors' positioning right now?
Generally, I don't think that Thailand will go into recession. Slowdown Yes. Thailand has more than enough financial resources to rejuvenate their economies. The rebuilding exercise should not be a problem. What we concern most is the execution part (just like Japan). For this investors should keep investing in Thailand selectively. Avoid banking, automobiles, agricultural and property sectors. Instead, hunt for those attractively priced counters in building materials, construction and healthcare sectors.

Countries wise, chose Malaysia and South Korea for the above mentioned reasons.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Budget 2012: How Does 1% more EPF Affecting YOU?

During the recent Budget 2012 announcement, one of the controversial issue is the increment of 1% contributed by employers to EPF effective 1st January 2012. This will bring the minimum contribution rate by employers to 13% from 12% currently for those earning less than RM5,000 per month.

The Fatter EPF
While employees are welcoming the new rules, many employers are voicing out their concern on the extra burden being bear by them. "This is not fair to us, especially during current scenario where businesses are bracing for more challenging times ahead", says one of the concerned boss. Although there is some sort of tax-relief for employers who contribute more, bosses are still unsatisfied by the new ruling which adds to their fixed costs.

What is the rationale behind?
The reason is somewhat very good, that is "to equip Malaysians more retirement funds for their golden age" after recent facts shown that Malaysian generally fully utilized their EPF monies between 3-10 years time after retired. This is an alarming issue which prompt government to impose the new ruling.

We work hand-in-hand
However, Finance Malaysia found another good reason behind all this. That is "EPF needs more money". Why?

  1. General election is coming very soon
  2. We need a feel good factor on Bursa Malaysia
  3. External environment resulting in a not so perform KLCI

If we link all the three points together, we can come out a conclusion, which is "Due to the gloomy economic outlook caused by western countries, Bursa Malaysia is in red territories in-line with other countries. Normally, KLCI is also an index which measures the health of Malaysia's economy. In other words, people perceived that our economy is good if KLCI is advancing, which acts as an advantage for the government in the coming general election. And, one of the important supporters was EPF". So, you know why EPF needs more money now?

Then, how does 1% more EPF affecting you?
Less Increment. If raw materials prices eats into profit, bosses will pass the extra costs to end consumers. Does this 1% more EPF consider as extra cost to bosses? Definitely. But, this is called operating costs to employers. So, the natural option for employers is to giving you less increment, thus reducing the effect of 1% more EPF contributions.


Example, you may only get a 9% increment, instead of your deserved 10%. Anyway, you still get the money in this case, but is in your EPF account rather than cash in hand. Good luck, buddies.

Note: This is purely for your own consumption without the intention to provoke any parties.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Suitpossum in the Guardian: On Financial Activism and the Occupy Movement


Winter is approaching and it’s looking like one of discontent. St. Paul’s cathedral has become home to a couple hundred protesters freezing in colourful tents, railing against the global financial sector. It's the Occupy London movement.

On Tuesday night I attended the general assembly outside St. Paul's. It was mostly to go through certain housekeeping protocols, like why it’s a bad idea to piss in bottles and throw them into public bins. Other items on the agenda were issues of security and maintaining good relationships with the St Paul’s clergy. It’s calmed down a lot since the first Saturday, when the cops were doing their tacky psychological warfare techniques, whispering sweet nothings like “Sir, if you enter the protest, you may not be able to leave again.” There’s a few cops left now, but they’re mostly blending into the scenery.

I was impressed by the camp food system that has sprung up, driven by kind donations, some from local chains like Pret (which incidentally are making shedloads of cash from cold protesters buying coffee from them). We even managed to get some sushi to go with our homemade vegetable soup. I was slightly less impressed by the public talks that have been occurring, a lot of (what I perceive to be) clichéd stuff about neoliberalism and bankers, and in general nothing particularly interesting or new. Indeed, it still seems to be much the same crowd that does all the protests. I suggested during the general assembly discussion group that much more needs to be done to translate the message to a wider audience, lest it fizzle out into a cliquey back-patting exercise.

KETTLE-FRIED LOVE
These issues weigh on my mind a lot, and yesterday I got an article published in the Guardian entitled 'Has the Occupy movement considered subverting global finance from within'. It was pointing out that while occupying a physical space is a worthwhile exercise, I think it’s time activists started pushing the  conceptual boundaries of protest. I want progressive movements to try gain some control of the creative potential of the financial sector.

Needless to say, when you put yourself out there in a public forum (such as the Guardian), you get all sorts of ideologues that try throw knives at you. It was fun defending my ideas, but the ad hominem attacks are pretty disturbing at first. One suggested I wasn’t worthy of being in the human race. A couple attacked my professional credentials. A few attacked my grasp of socialist theory, under the somewhat presumptuous assumption that having read the great Marxian works was a prerequisite to commenting on activist techniques.

Such is the nature of public commentary though, and, on the plus side, some great people have got hold of me to discuss the ideas further. It's really rewarding to hear opinions on how the concept of financial activism could be refined, so please do read the article and post any comments on the Guardian site, or here. I'll be  sure to respond.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

New Fund: Public Ittikal Sequel Fund

The Public Ittikal Sequel Fund (PITSEQ) is a Shariah-compliant capital growth fund that invests in a diversified portfolio of index-linked companies, blue chip stocks and companies with growth prospects listed on the Bursa Securities. The fund may also invest in sukuk such as sovereign sukuk, corporate sukuk and Islamic money market instruments to generate returns.


The Fund will focus its investments mainly in the domestic market, capitalising on opportunities arising from Malaysia’s resilient economic growth prospects in the medium-to long-term. Some of the sectors that the Fund may invest in include consumer, industrial, telecommunications and utilities sectors.

How about foreign investment?
To achieve increased diversification, the Fund may invest up to 30% of its NAV in selected foreign markets. The foreign markets which the fund may invest in include Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, India, Australia, United States of America and other permitted markets.


Free Takaful?
The fund comes with free takaful coverage on Group Term Life with Total and Permanent Disability plus Group Personal Accident for unitholders aged between 18 to 59 years with a minimum NAV of RM5,000 at any point of time. The amount of takaful is equal to the NAV of units held in the ratio of RM1 takaful coverage for every RM1 NAV of units held, subject to a maximum amount of RM100,000 per unitholder of the fund.

Source: Public Mutual

Monday, October 17, 2011

YTL Power to be privatized? (Oct 2011)

According to The Edge over the weekend, "rumours are swirling that YTL Group has hired local investment bankers to work on a possible corporate exercise that could result in its restructuring".  YTL Power and YTL Land, whereby YTL Corp has a 51.7% and 57.9% stake in respectively, are said to be targets for privatization or share swap exercises to align the group.


Well, if this is true, it definitely will boost the said target companies share prices. Before jumping to the conclusion, let us get the view from professionals. With that, we have a timely article from RHB Research who touched on this matter as below:



"We believe the likelihood of a privatization is low, as its FY12 PE of 12.8x is not much lower than its 5-year average forward PE of 14.7x. Besides, YTL Power's FY12 PE is similar to the 13x PE used for our end-2012 FBM KLCI 1,385 target."

"Also, we believe it will be very costly to privatize YTL Power. While YTL Power could take on more debt to facilitate such a privatization, it would significantly hamper its ability to acquire distressed utility assets in Europe."

"Our calculations indicate that at RM2.21 (assuming a 20% premium to its last traded price of RM1.84), YTL Corp would need RM8.3bn to buy out the remaining 48.3% equity stake held by minorities and assuming full conversion of outstanding warrants. A share swap is more likely as there is not much cash at the holding company, YTL Corp."

Any synergies from consolidating?
"We do not see much synergies in realigning the companies via a share swap exercise if YTL Corp were to consolidate YTL Power and YTL Land into a single entity, since there is little overlap among these businesses."


Investment case...
"We maintain our Market Perform call on YTL Power with an unchanged SOP-derived fair value of RM2.00. YTL Power offers a decent net dividend yield of 5.1% - the key investment thesis for the stock. While news flow will lift short-term sentiment, concerns over expanding WiMAX losses may cap longer-term upside potential".

Source: RHB research report dated 17th Oct 2011



Saturday, October 15, 2011

RHB Cap and OSK: Largest Investment Bank in the making?


Finally, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) gave the green light for RHBCap and OSK to start negotiations on the possible merger yesterday. The approval is valid for 3 months. Indeed, the act by BNM is fast this time, signalling its commitment to consolidate the banking sector. Regional footprint is increasingly crucial for local players to counter the highly competitive domestic landscape. That's why BNM is willing to speed up the process of any merger and acquisitions that may create a regional champions.


The merger of RHB Cap and OSK will proudly creates the largest investment bank at least in Malaysia. Currently, CIMB leading the segment under the leadership of Datuk Nazir Razak. If we recalled back, RHB Securities is very famous during 90s before financial crisis. When we heard about RHB last time, it refers to RHB Securities (not RHB Bank), which is a business under the investment banking arm.

However, everything was changed after the 97 financial crisis, which left RHB with heavy debts and the business of RHB Securities lag behind without much focused by management since then. Anyway, it's good to know that RHB is trying to revive the long lost business.

Would the deal go through?
For RHB, it would be the first major milestone for new Group Managing Director Kellee Kam, who said: "This is an exciting opportunity for the RHB group as it would enhance and elevate its investment banking franchise to a new level".

Meanwhile, OSK had signaled that they are happy for any collaboration with RHB. Currently, OSK had a wider regional footprint with operations in KL, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Phnom Penh and Jakarta. Coupled with its strong brand name, this is definitely a big boost to RHB's expansion plan.

As such, my view is that both parties are keen to conclude the deal on a willing buyer willing seller basis. Backed by EPF, RHB had a lot of cash in hand, while OSK needs the money to kick-start its regional operations.



At what price?
The determining factor for any M&A activities would be the price. And, this is the most important part where investors would want to know, so that, they can benefit from it. Well, I believe the merger plan would eventually turn-out to be an acquisition plan, where RHB Cap may launched a take-over deal for OSK. That's why I only set a determining price for OSK here, which is in the range of RM1.90 to RM2.00 (depending on how hungry RHB was). Let's see how it go.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Why Gold Price DROPs lately? (Oct 2011)

During market uncertainties, there are two popular safe assets which is Gold and USD. This explain why the demand for these two assets is great, resulting them to become more valuable while equity market fell. We experienced the said scenario recently and let's see the chart below to gauge the Gold price movements.



"Gold prices collapsed from their August highs in September amid a broad commodity sell-off and despite intensifying concerns over sovereign debt issues in Europe. After exhibiting a remarkable correlation to real rates this year, particularly during the swift August rally, the sharp pullback in gold prices occurred with real rates mostly unchanged."



"Gold prices have now fallen back in line with our 3-month price target. As we expect gold prices will continue to be driven in large measure by the evolution of US real interest rates and with our US economic outlook pointing for continued low levels of US real rates in 2012, we continue to recommend long trading positions in gold and reiterate our 12-month price target of $1,860/toz", reported Goldman Sachs.

Why is it different this round?
Supposedly, gold prices should move in-line with USD. But, we see USD strengthening to months high while gold prices faced some setbacks lately. We at Finance Malaysia would like to guess the off-the-screen factors such as...

First, who is holding the most gold?
Second, who is in dire needs to sell gold reserves?
Of course, European countries (highlighted in yellow)



Now, you know why gold prices behave differently? Ha...ah. We are not surprise by the sell-down (if any), given the high valuations gold fetches when it recorded all-time high almost every days until $1,900/toz. Does Gold more important than cash right now? Yes for China, No for Europe.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

4 Interesting Questions on Budget 2012

Well, well, well... The newly announced Budget 2012 seems to be a very holistic one, which covers almost everyone (even the opposition MPs). In the budget, a total of RM232.8 billions was allocated to implement all Government development plans, which include the projects and programs under various plans, focusing on the well-being of the rakyat. But, there are a few interesting questions that Finance Malaysia would like to highlight here.


1) Is it too optimistic?
As we all know, the external environment is becoming more challenging once again due to slowdown in US, Europe and Japan (if not double-dip recession). This would definitely impact Malaysia as manufacturing sector still playing a crucial role in our country's growth. While IMF is revising downward the global growth next year, our Government is projecting a 5 - 5.5% growth this year, and 5 - 6% for 2012. I think we should be very happy if Malaysia can grow more than 4.5% for 2011 and 2012.


2) Budget Deficit to come down?
Taking into account the estimated revenue and expenditure, the Federal Government deficit in 2012 is expected to improve to 4.7% of GDP compared with 5.4% in 2011. As we all know, Petronas is the main contributor to Government's revenue, which is heavily relies on crude oil prices. How much is the estimated price Government based on 2012? It does not stated. Of course, it should be lower than current year. Am I correct?


3) Construction sector to be one of the main growth engine?
By setting a 7% growth forecast for Construction sector next year, is it too optimistic (yet again)? Given the current state of delayed tendering process, land acquisition dispute and change of project owners (MRT project), I doubt the execution part of the beautifully layout projects. Do remember that Hong Kong and Singapore takes more than 5 years just for planning for their MRT projects. And, if we can kick-start so soon, sure Malaysia Boleh!!!


4) Is it really Rakyat-centric?
Just as rakyat coping with high living cost, especially in urban areas, there is some relieves after the Government's latest various incentives and rebates. Subsidies on some of the basic food items were continued. Concurrently, our MPs also have higher allowance. This seems like a win-win situation. However, would the Government forgot about another very important item - petrol? As promised earlier, our petrol prices are adjusted according to market price. Judging from the fallen crude oil prices lately, why Government still not yet lower petrol prices? I believe this is definitely a better and more effective way to help rakyat.

The Finance Innovation Lab: Escape to the Country

A few weeks ago a group of wayward individuals met at Waterloo station. We hitched a ride on a train going north into the English wilderness. Bertrand was forward-thinking enough to have brought beers for the journey, a skill he learnt in his 10 years working for Deutsche Bank as a structured equity derivatives trader. Next to him was Ingo. Ingo does things that make my mind hurt, which involves channelling and managing innovation and systems design, in Sweden. Behind me was Neil. He works for the Young Foundation, helping to design things called Social Impact Bonds, ways of allowing private investors to get involved in financing early interventions that might reduce social malladies. He was chatting to David, who specialises in design, and in particular, new means of mapping and visualising the financial sector. Bertrand started talking about social CDOs, and that's when people on the train started to look at us funny. A girl sitting next to me asked me who we were. Um, how do you explain that? We kind of work in finance, but at the same time are trying to disrupt it, alter it, play with it. I gave her my card. "Come to the dark side", I said, "there are cool things going on". Enter the Finance Innovation Lab.


This is me, trying to talk on camera after three days of mind-disruption. We were talking financial reform and innovation, but most of all, the group of 21 of us were all together to discuss and map the potential future strategy and vision for the Finance Lab. The Lab was originally set up to bring people together under the common goal of finding out what a 'financial system that served people and planet looked like'. I'm a comparative newcomer to the group, but in the year or so that I've been hanging around I've seen the fantastic potential the Lab has to connect people, and to promote learning and collaboration. The next challenge though, is how to scale it up to the next level, to bring in new streams of funding, target more people, and incubate more projects. Jen Morgan, Charlotte Millar, Richard Spencer, Rachel Sinha, Tina Santiago, Maria Scordialos, Vanessa Reid and Hendrik Tiesinga set up the frameworks to help us to think about these questions, and then let it run. A particular discussion point concerned the extent to which the Lab should shift from its current role as a facilitating and connecting organisation, to an organisation with a more explicit focus on advocating specific policies. The process of shifting to a more political stance isn't likely to be easy, but that why Chris Hewett has come in to explore the possibilities for 'finance policy for a green economy', with support from the Gulbenkian Foundation, represented at the weekend by Louisa Hooper.

SPOT THE EX-GOLD TRADER
Note the beautiful setting, on the grounds of West Lexham, a fantastic enterprise on an old converted farm. Manager Edmund wants it to be a hub for community empowerment, permaculture, renewable energy and creative solutions for sustainability, so that suited us pretty well. In our crew was Niahm, a whirlwind helping to drive WWF's sustainable food initiative, Tasting the Future - concerned with issues around sustainable food systems. We had Bruce, one of the guys behind peer-to-peer lending site Zopa, and now launching Abundance, a means for retail investors to put their money directly into financing wind farms and solar energy. We had the guys interested in unorthodox monetary systems - including Ben, pushing the boundaries of the monetary reform debate, and Leander, working on nurturing the complementary currency ecosystem. I shared a room in an old piggery with Maxime, representing both France and the socially responsible investment community.

PURE INNOVATION


The Fellowship of the Ning
BERTRAND SHARES HIS FEELINGS
The Finance Innovation Lab is a great space for those looking to get involved in designing a sustainable financial system. The first point of contact for those who are interested in getting involved is the online network hosted by Ning, but the core team is working on setting up a new website with enhanced capabilities. The plans are grand. By 2013, I expect we should own a large part of Canary Wharf. Until then, we get our strength from diversity. It's certainly not just for financialismos. It's for anyone with an interest in sustainability, creative design, systemic thinking, chaos theory, food systems, climate change, social justice, and last but not least, all those who just like causing a little bit of havoc.


THE MAIN REASON TO JOIN THE LAB: HOT GIRLS

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

OSK Strategy and Outlook (Oct 2011)

We still feel that there is downside to the KLCI although with non-GLICs supposedly close to maximum cash levels and GLICs supposedly not aggressively supporting the market up till now, further downside maybe somewhat less than our recession market bottom of 1086 points.

OSK: Normalised performance of September’s top stock picks

With Budget 2012 (to be announced on this Friday 7th Oct) around the corner, OSK has no major expectations of the budget except that it will probably be people friendly and include:
  1. No further tightening of regulations with regards to the property sector which should be positive for property stocks
  2. No hike in Brewery Tax which will be positive for Carlsbergy and Guiness
  3. A 4.5 - 6.8% hike in Tobacco excise duties which will be mildly negative for BAT and JTI
  4. A likely hike in Civil Servants salary as the last hike was in 2008 which will be positive for MBSB

OSK: Defensive Top 10 Buys

OSK remain defensive for now with expectations of a further drop in the KLCI although they do not see it dropping to our recession bottom of 1086 points. Given the volatile market conditions, it is difficult for us to forecast when the KLCI may fall past the 1300 points level although a break below is possible in October itself. As such, our recommendation is no longer "time-based" but rather "level-based".

For now, with 1300 points still some 6% away from current levels, we remain NEUTRAL on the market with our call still focused on Defensive stocks. A fall below the 1300 level will likely prompt us to upgrade our call on the market to a BUY.

OSK: Top 5 picks for the month of October 2011

With 3 of Top 5 Buys in September outperforming the KLCI and given the significant market uncertainty remaining, OSK keep its Top 5 Buys intact for October. Axiata, Petronas Gas, TM and KPJ are undoubtedly defensive stocks while selling may yet abate on foreign darling AirAsia with profit prospects improving as oil price drops. Aggressive Bottom Fishing is only recommended once the market breaks below 1300 points with names such as Genting, Parkson and Dialog coming to mind then.

Source: OSK Research

Monday, October 3, 2011

New Fund: Hong Leong Hong Kong Equity Optimizer Fund

Finally, there is a new fund from Hong Leong Asset Management (HLAM). The fund is designed to capture the vibrant growth of the Hong Kong capital market. The Hong Kong market has one of the world's leading securities exchange in the Asian region which is one of the fastest growing capital markets by market activity and new listings



Hong Kong, dubbed as Asia's most liquid exchange, acts as a key platform in the internalization of the Renminbi (RMB) currency. This allows investors to participate in the RMB appreciation potential via investments in equities and bonds.

The new Hong Leong Hong Kong Equity Optimizer Fund, being a growth fund, will invest primarily in equities and equity-related securities that are listed on the Hong Kong Exchange. Meanwhile, the balance may be invested in domestic and Hong Kong fixed income securities.


To achieve its investment objective, the Fund adopts an actively managed investment strategy which may include investment in common stock and depository receipts of companies, unit trusts funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs).


The Offshore Investment Adviser
GuocoCapital Limited (GCap) has been appointed as the offshore investment advisor for the Fund, in which GCap shall provide advice on the Manager's equity and equity-related securities in Hong Kong market. GCap is an established brokerage house with a diverse clientele, offering a full range of services, including modern delivery channels such as the Internet and the Automated Trading Hotline (IVRS). GCap is a wholly owned subsidiary of Guoco Group Limited which is a listed company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.


The Fund is suitable for investors who:

  • have a medium-to-long term investment horizon;
  • wish to participate in potential investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market;
  • are seeking primarily capital growth and to a lesser extent income; and
  • are willing to accept higher risk in their investments to obtain potentially higher returns

Source: HLAM

Hans in China again!


I will be a visiting professor at Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China until the end of October and I might therefore not be able to write anything on my blog until then.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

RHB: Market Outlook & Strategy 4Q2011

Titled "Perilous Crossroads; Challenging Times Ahead" RHB Research painted a not so rosy 4Q2011 outlook for KLCI. Undeniably, our market are in for a turbulent times and we do not know how the year will be ended. Bear or Bull market?



Below is the excerpt from the said report:

~ The US economic recovery has slowed to a crawl, while Europe is not just lurching from one crisis to another, it is lurching into a new one before the previous one is solved. There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could exert downward pressure on demand and business activity worldwide.


~ Nevertheless, "double-dip" recession can still be avoided if political leaders get their acts together fast enough to contain the debt crises and avert a contagion given that global trade has not fallen off the cliff.

~ On the home front, we expect the Government to speed up the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme, which coupled with resilient consumer spending, will provide some cushion to the weak external demand for the country's exports.

~ RHB has revised down our 2012's economic growth projection to 3.6% from 4.5% previously and compared with +4.3% estimated for 2011.

~ With a still cloudy global economic outlook, we believe it is still too early to "bottom fish" at this stage. As global headwinds remain strong and situations could get worse, we will continue to advocate a defensive investment strategy for investors.

~ Under such circumstances, we are of the view that high dividend yielding stocks with reasonably good growth potential would be more resilient and will likely outperform the overall market.