New Fund: AmConsumer Select - Capital Protected

AmInvestment Bank is launching a new capital-protected fund and it is optimistic of a good take-up rate for this RM100mil new fund. According to its CEO, the launch of the fund is timely in view of the current macroeconomic uncertainties. Since it is capital protected, the fund offers a safe haven for risk-averse investors looking to hedge against the uncertainty in the global market, she adds.

The Fund is a close-ended fund which aims to provide regular income with an investment horizon of 2.5 years (30 months) whilst providing capital protection on Maturity Date. The Fund seeks to achieve its objective by investing in ZNIDs and/or MGS and an over-the-counter option linked to the price movement of a basket of five (5) consumer related stocks.

For the purpose of the Fund, consumer related stocks refer to stocks of companies that produce products/services that are consumed by individuals. Selection of consumer related stocks is based on fundamental strength of the companies through internal research and brands that the Manager considers to be widely known among investors.

The Strategy...

Generally, the Fund will adopt a two-fold strategy to achieve its objective, i.e.

1. Capital protection* from fixed income portion
   At the Fund’s commencement, a minimum of 85% of the Fund’s NAV will be invested in 2.5-year ZNIDs and/or MGS with shorter or similar maturity tenure to the Fund’s maturity, which upon maturity of the Fund will achieve an amount equivalent to 100% of investor’s initial capital (which includes entry charge payable by investors). A maximum of 5% of the Fund’s NAV will be maintained in cash and/or money market instruments for liquidity purposes.
   
   
   
2. Fund’s return from option portion
   At the Fund’s commencement, up to 10% of the Fund’s NAV will be used to purchase a 2.5-year USD denominated option with an option counter-party, which is a financial institution carrying a minimum long-term rating of “A” by S&P or the equivalent rating by any other global rating agency. The option provides exposure which is linked to the price movement of a basket of five (5) consumer related stocks.

At the end of each quarter, if the closing price of each of the stock is at or above its respective initial level on any day within the quarter, the option counter-party pays a conditional coupon. The income distribution (if any) will however be paid half yearly to investors.

The basket of five (5) consumer related stocks (indicative selection only) currently identified as

follows:

If the Coupon Payout Condition is met at any quarter, the coupon payout from the option

counterparty is calculated as follows:

Coupon (RM) = (Notional Amount / USD/RMInitial) x coupon rate (settled in USD) x

USD/RMEnd

• “USD/RMInitial” refers to the USD/RM exchange rate for the determination of the Notional Amount in USD as at Commencement Date.
• “USD/RMEnd” refers to the actual USD/RM exchange rate for conversion of the coupon (received by the Fund) from USD to RM.

* Investors are advised that the Fund is not a guaranteed fund. Capital protection is provided through investments in ZNIDs and/or MGS and not by a guarantee. Consequently, the return of capital is SUBJECT TO the credit/default risk of the issuers of the ZNIDs and/or MGS and may result in losses.

Source: AmMutual

OSK Research: 1Q2012 Report Card and Strategy (June 2012)

In the recently concluded 1Q2012 reporting season, a similar number of companies under our coverage underperformed, at 31% versus 32% in 4Q2011 and 34% in 3Q2011. The percentage of companies that outperformed fell to 14%  from 17% in the previous quarter (see Fig 1) and 15% in 3Q2011. Surprisingly, there were more earnings letdowns among the big caps, with 27% missing estimates versus 17% in the preceding quarter while among the small caps, more companies trumped estimates - at 20% - compared with 12% in 4Q2011. The notable positive surprises among the big caps were Maybank and JCY while the negatives were from MAS, the Genting Group and MISC.

Steel, plantations and oil & gas disappointed.

The steel, plantations and oil & gas sectors were  dogged  by industry-specific issues and the macro-economic environment. Most steel companies that we cover continued to be mired in losses due to weaker selling prices and high material costs while plantation companies suffered production setbacks and higher input cost. Oil & gas companies were drenched by the monsoon season and the dearth of new contracts, which are only expected to pick up in 2H2012. The Genting group of companies saw earnings skimmed by the poor showing from the domestic and Singapore gaming units as well as its plantation outfit.

But consumer, financials/insurers gave reason to cheer.

As expected, the sectors in better shape were those with relatively more stable and defensive earnings and which had benefited from the Chinese New Year demand. Here, the breweries and retailers stood out. There was also the positive fillip for financial related insurance companies due to the adoption of the Malaysian Financial Reporting Standard (MFRS1) during the quarter.    

Given the potential bugbears in the form of:

1. the upcoming make-or-break elections for Greece slated for 17 June,
2. possibility of a Spain bailout,
3. FOMC’s meeting on 19-20 June, and
4. the technical violation of the US markets last Friday,

there are enough reasons for investors to stay defensive while positioning for rebound trades in the event of a sharp pullback. The upcoming listing of 2 major IPOs (Gas Malaysia and Felda Global Ventures) should provide near-term catalysts and support for the FBM KLCI. We like the banking, consumer, construction and oil & gas sectors.

In short, market is turning more cautious, so do investors...


Source: OSK Research

Why All of Us Must Care about 1Care Malaysia?

Heard about 1Care Malaysia healthcare plan? If no, then you must read this article thoroughly word by word. Because the the proposed healthcare system will drastically change the way we seek for treatment in the future. The main issue was "Is it viable to implement 1Care?".

Well, the intention is good for our community. The plan had a very beautiful definition as below:

But...

Concern is always there whenever Government want to implement something and that thing is managed solely by Government. Experience? Got (bad experience). Money? Got, but already drained somewhere (normally). You can't prevent Malaysians from worrying, especially when 1Care touches each and everyone of us for life.

What are the concerns?

1. Each person in different sector have different risk level. How to determine the amount of contributions of each contributor?
   
   
2. Subsequently, how to determine the benefits package each individual entitled to? If the benefits was based on the amount of contribution, then, our existing insurance system already functioning very well now.
   
   
3. Then, you can say that it was community-rated, not risk-rated. That's mean rich are subsidizing the poor, economically active to passive system. But, doesn't rich already pay taxes to government to subsidize them currently?
   
   
4. Level of services of hospitals and choices of hospitals. Can we seek treatment at any hospital, be it general or private hospitals? If not, it will again limit our choice.
   
   
5. Choice? Emm. The proposed 1Care is being made compulsory to all employees and employers to contribute (except government servants). Wait!!! Does this mean that private sector is subsidizing public sector?
   
   
6. A government agency was being set up to manage the pool of money collected from all of us. OMG!!! We are talking billions of ringgit per year. It's a huge huge huge amount which could bought over CIMB bank!!!

Once 1Care was implemented, the following sector will suffer:

1. Private sector. If the said 10% mandatory contribution by each employee is true, most salary based person will switch to personal loan, I think.
   
   
2. Retailers will suffer badly from less disposable income after the mandatory deduction of salary. No more 25% drop in car sales anymore. It's probably 90%.
   
   
3. Property market will slump. Don't forget that our loan applications now is based on net salary, which means deducting your 11% EPF + 10% 1Care + Socso + Tax. How much left?
   
   
4. Private healthcare system. Private hospitals have to lobby smartly to get involved in 1Care system to remain in business. Monopoly game means you have to "pay" more? Good Luck.
   
   
5. Private insurance companies and its agents. A big chunk of their medical policies will be terminated and a big chunk of premiums will flow to the new set up government agency. Thousands of agents will struggle to survive.

Then, why Government proposing 1Care Malaysia? Emm. I got many input from friends and professionals and below could be the 3 reasons behind 1Care:

1. Diversifying the problems of public healthcare system to private healthcare, so that private healthcare was forced to collaborate.
   
   
2. Reducing Government's burden, thus reducing budget deficit, by imposing mandatory contribution from everyone. For us, it's just like another form of income tax.
   
   
3. Hijacking the lucrative insurance business which was dominated by foreign companies (etc. Great Eastern, Allianz, AIA, Prudential, ING...) especially on medical policies. With 1Care, it could effectively grab the market share from them, entrusting government agency as the undisputed largest insurance company in Malaysia.

Finance Malaysia blog is just voicing out the concerns of general public for betterment of Malaysia going forward. Readers were welcome to give comment or feedback. Thanks.

How to invest during HIGH Inflation era? (Sept 2011)

What is the main risk for Asian economy? None other than Inflation. Across the region, fast-growing countries such as Singapore, Indonesia, India and China are reporting faster than expected price increases in tandem with their economic success.

To fight inflation, many countries already carried out their tools of tightening. We have Singapore who fights imported inflation via stronger currency. Meanwhile, other countries are going for the traditional way of hiking interest rate and increasing bank reserve requirement since last year. At first, Bank Negara Malaysia called it as "normalization", but it seems to be "containerization" going forward to contain inflation.

Who's fault?

There are 2 causes for the problem, which I categorized them into international and national. Among the international contributing factors were:

1. Loose monetary policies practiced by US and Europe, who slashes interest rate to almost zero and carried out large scale of asset purchases. Yet, it failed to rejuvenate a sustainable economy.
2. As a result, these easy-money flushing into Asia in search of higher returns is fueling asset bubbles here. Then, we raised interest rates, and this had lured even more money into Asia together with an even stronger currency.
3. Other then equity, easy-money also flown to Commodity markets, including food staples and basic materials. Also, searching for higher return in view of greater demand by Asian countries to produce or consume more. This had pushed up inflation.

In the other end, we have National factors such as:

1. Consumer spending has risen much faster than supply. This is very obvious in populated countries such as China, India and Indonesia.
2. While western countries facing high unemployment rate, our side is not only hiring, but increasing wages too. Hong Kong and Malaysia are implementing a minimum wage for the first time. Thailand is the next to follow. Who is going to absorb the higher wages? Definitely not companies, it's consumers.

So, how to invest during high-inflation era?

Equities. Although higher inflation did not bode well for the economy, but, the revenue and earnings of companies shown in the balance sheet is greater. In other words, inflation can show up in earnings growth for some companies. To protect our investment, we should select those companies that have sufficient pricing power to pass on the additional cost to end clients.

4 Components of Economic Growth (August 2011)

So far, equity markets are down anywhere between 10-20% and bond yields in a number of major markets are reaching historic lows. Although it is difficult and nerve racking, investors should understand some of the forces behind what's creating this volatility and how they're likely to play out in the near term.

When will market rebound?

Again, we simply cannot answer that million-dollar question. If I know, I won't be writing this article here telling you all stories and facts. We should have a longer term view, especially during volatile times when fears dominating the marketplace.

So, what are some of the driving forces behind?

If we go back to basics, the 4 components that really drive economic growth are Government, Consumer, Corporate, Import & Export. If we look at each individually, we can do better opinion, by analyzing them.

Government:

Since 2008, governments have played an increasingly dominant role in the markets that we're familiar with. They are expanding monetary policy, expanding fiscal policy, bailing out companies, regulating companies or buying companies. Who else can replace the government now? Of course, NO one. The government are now a fact of life in the markets and investment as we know it. Example, the Citigroup bailout had actually turned out to be a very profitable investment for US Government. Undeniably, we have to understand each movements of government in order to make returns from.

However, Government cannot runaway from political issues which may confused the markets. Everyday, we guessed what is Obama or Bernanke going to say next, what's ECB going to do, when is our next general election? As the market continues to test Governments and its policy continue to evolve, we are due for continued uncertainty and volatility in the market.

Consumer:

We as a consumer are going through a difficult time, especially in developed markets. We faced with higher taxes, unemployment and inflation, all eroding our disposable income which in turn makes spending power and confidence lower. Market falls because of lower consumption/retail figures, and this will further enhance fear in the eyes of the consumer in return.

Investment:

This is what ETP of Malaysia means: Private investment with Government facilitation. However, corporates is talking about managing their costs and having a good solid balance sheets with cash to avoid problems in downturns. Right now, they are the healthiest of the 3 domestic components towards economic growth. Government is indebted more than corporates. Companies with strong balance sheets are in a better positions in expanding, be it organically or through acquisitions, like what Google doing right now (taking over Motorola).

Picture taken from www.money4invest.com

Export-Import:

Lastly, developing countries are the main growth drivers in international trades. Still, they are growing, albeit slower pace. We need to keep an eye of it and it's impact between developing and developed countries.

In summary, we should not over-react given the volatility of the market. In fact, we should take this as an opportunity to take on good solid companies for long-term investing. I still see a lot of good companies trading at single digit P/E, some with good dividend yield too. Should you forego the chances?

New Fund: OSK-UOB Capital Protected Sector Strategy Fund

Yet, another capital protected fund for investors by OSK-UOB unit trust management. Following the pump priming efforts by governments around the world during the financial crisis, the global economies have begun to stabilize and signs of recovery are growing strong. The stimulus packages introduced have benefited broad market sectors to a different extent in each sector at each stage of recovery.

"At each stage of the economic recovery, different market sectors will benefit to a different extent. These 4 sectors which are well diversified are expected to capitalize on the different sectors' play", said Ho Seng Yee, CEO of OSK-UOB.

According to Ho, the fund shares a similar strategy with the OSK-UOB Capital Protected Gold Guru Fund that was launched in 2009 and has registered returns of 29%.

Funds' Allocation & Strategy

This is a 4-year close-ended capital protected fund which aims to provide capital appreciation over the medium term whilst protecting investors' capital on the maturity date. To accord for the capital protection feature, the fund will invest primarily in 4-year ZNIDs with the remainder of the capital raised invested in 4-year over-the-counter (OTC) option whose underlying asset is the Multi Sector Strategy ("Sector Option") to generate the returns for the fund.

The Multi Sector Strategy Option

It provides investors an exposure to 4 distinct market sectors represented by exchange traded funds in the Energy, Material, Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors.

While the Sector Option is denominated in Ringgit Malaysia, the underlying Multi Sector Strategy is based in Singapore Dollars, thus, the Fund's return is subject to exchange rate risk.

Source: OSK-UOB unit trust management bhd

To read the fund's prospectus, please click here .


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New Fund: OSK-UOB US Focus Equity Fund
Unlocking the Mystery of Capital Protected Funds