Monday, June 30, 2008

Are we heading for stagflation on a close-to-global scale? - Part IV

The story continues. Stagflation expectations seem to become more and more widespread and there are clear signs (I would say) that more and more people start realizing that the current troublesome situation, and past excesses, very well may lead us down the unpleasant stagflation route. OK, there is no global stagflation at the moment, and there might never be any, but a couple of countries are actually starting to experience such a plight. I attach some results from my own research and it seems that the likelihood according to that indicator has continued to stay elevated. The level is not as high as earlier this spring though. I don’t put to much weight into the month-to-month fluctuations but the steady elevated level is possibly a worrying sign. I’ll be back (hopefully with “better” news…)