New IPO: Astro Malaysia Holdings

The Return of a Pay TV Giant!!! Astro Malaysia Holdings (AMH) is poised to list on Bursa's Main Market on 19th Oct with a market cap of RM15.6bil. The largest pay-TV operator in Malaysia has a de factor monopoly, commanding a 99% market share. Are you excited, again?

Background

AMH is the leading media entertainment group in Malaysia with 3,100,000 customers and one of the largest in South East Asia. It is primarily engaged in the creation, aggregation and distribution of content over multiple delivery platforms including TV, radio, publications and digital media within Malaysia.

What's the different from the then delisted entity?

Recall that Astro All Asia Networks (AAAN) was the one taken private in 2010 by its single largest shareholder Astro Holdisngs SB. Meanwhile, AMH is effectively the domestic media business arm of previously-listed AAAN.

How good was Astro Malaysia Holdings?

• A monopoly in the pay TV segment with 99% market share
• A capital intensive industry, creates a high barrier for new entrants
• A buffet of content with presently 156 channels of which 68 are home grown channels. The increase in broadcasting capacity to 180SD and 102 HD channels with the launch of Measat-3B in 2014 will help boost ARPU and subscriber base.
• Multi platform content distribution would enable the group to reach out to more customers

After the good things, let's have a look at some potential risk that AMH may face:

• The group is subject to extensive regulation with its license subject to renewal;
• The group’s exclusive satellite rights would end in 2017;
• Its business is dependent on its infrastructure namely MEASAT-3 and MEASAT-3A and the launch of MEASAT-3B in 2014. Any failure to its existing satellites or delay in launching MEASAT 3B would interrupt its business operations;
• Competition from incumbent IPTV player such as Hypp TV and the highly anticipated Asian Broadcasting Network could erode its market share. However we foresee this as a longer term threat.
• Escalating rate of subscriber churn rate may decrease the group’s profitability given the presence of illegal set up boxes in the market such as skybox;
• Unable to source or procure content at reasonable rates.
• Its IPTV and OTT services may be affected by disruptions, delays and other difficulties from third-party network and broadband service providers just to list a few.
• Exposure to foreign currency risk since the purchases of setup boxes, international content cost and transponders lease payments are mainly denominated in USD would impact its operations.

Then, how attractive is the pricing? Is it expensive? Based on different valuation method, below is the fair value given by various research houses:

Source: Various including research report from TA and OSK.

OSK Stock Picks for April 2011

After being hit by a few Black Swan events, markets rebounded in March with the KLCI ending 1Q in the black. Moving into 2Q, we still see some short term volatility but are confident of an eventual rally to close in on our year-end KLCI target of 1680 points. We advise investors BUY Big Caps on potential rebounds while focusing on the more defensive Small Caps given their superior performance over the past few months. The favorite sectors remain Banks, O&G, Property and Construction in the mid-to-short term while the longer term buys are Media and Healthcare. This strategy is reflected in our April top buys as well.

Timber the BIG winner...

For March, timber stocks were actually the big winners, including names such as Suber Tiasa, Jaya Tiasa, TaAnn, WTK and Lingui, on hopes for better timber demand in view of reconstruction efforts in Japan. Nonetheless, these counters are not part of the FBM100. Instead, among the FBM100 constituents, media player Media Chinese and Petronas companies Petronas Dagangan and Chemicals were the big winners. Sectoral wise, O&G led the way followed by Technology (JCY), Media (MCIL), and Gaming (Genting).

Outlook: Moving into 2Q

Moving into 2Q, we see the possibility of some short-term volatility for the remainder of 2011 but market fundamentals remain sound. We maintain our year-end KLCI target of 1680 points based on an average of the 2011 KLCI fair value (1648 points 16x PER) and 2012 KLCI fair value (1710 points 15x PER). With this in mind, we maintain Overweight on the Malaysian market. Our view is driven by 4 key factors:

• The economy will continue to grow
• Upside and Downside are fairly equal
• News flow ahead of the General Election remains very supportive
• Earnings should match expectations

For April - A month of 2 Halves

We believe that there may well be 2 distinct halves in the month of April. The first half should be positive for the market, with the one of the key factors being the Invest Malaysia conference which will be held on 12 April. Among the announcements could be:

• The disposal of Khazanah's stake in Pos Malaysia
• The next Risk Service Contract for marginal oil fields
• Release of Government lands for property development

However, for the second half of the month, we are concerned of greater market volatility, due to potentially less positive outcome of the Sarawak elections. Since BN already holding more than 80% of the state seats, we believe the risk is that their performance may drop in this upcoming election. Consequently, this may spark some knee jerk selling until the 1Q2011 reporting season.

Source: OSK Reseach Report