Budget 2014: Property Sector Hit Hard by RPGT and DIBS ruling

As widely expected, property sector would be one of the hardest hit sector in view of the proposed cooling measures to be imposed. Out of the 3 tightening rules forecast by Finance Malaysia, 2 already Bingo! (Read our previous articles regarding property sector "3 Tighter Rules for Property Sector?" and "3 Critical Factors to watch out by Year End")

These cooling measures announced highlighting that government will not hesitate to curb property speculations and to ensure a affordable property prices. Of course, property developers will be the one screaming painfully.

The 3 Key Measures:

1. Higher Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT)
   This was the 3rd consecutive year government raised RPGT. Even said so, it was just reinstated back to its original rates since 2007. The different this time compared to previous rounds was different set of rates to be imposed on different categories of buyers as shown below:
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
2. Banning DIBS
   As predicted by us previously, DIBS was deemed to be one of the key motivating factor for speculators, thus pushing up property prices to current level. By banning DIBS, it will effectively diminished the speculative interest as the cost of investment increase with interest payment during construction period. It's good to genuine and first-time house buyers.
   
   
3. Higher minimum Purchased Price for Foreigners
   To minimized influx of hot money shoring up local property prices, government raised the minimum purchased price to above RM1mil from RM500k per unit. However, this doesn't impact the market much because most properties purchased by foreigners are above RM1mil. Nevertheless, foreigners' favorite investment hotspot, such as Iskandar or KLCC or Mont Kiara area would be affected.

Would this be the end of property up-cycle?

[Property] 3 Critical Factors to Watch Out by Year End (July 2013)

Ever since the property boom started in 2009, right after the global financial crisis, investors were laughing to the bank. But, can these sustain until next year? Many analysts doubt so. Why?

The most crucial determining factors might uncover itself in the next few months, approaching year end. In short, we have summed out to the below 3 critical factors:

1. Banning of DIBS
   This is not a secret anymore. Speculation rife up recently, saying that BNM may ban the Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) by year end. BNM is studying the implications of DIBS which benefiting speculators more than serious buyers. Note: Singapore already banned such scheme few years back.
   
   
2. Interest Rate hike
   BNM also may revised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), which determine the cost of financing in the country including Base Lending Rate (BLR) for mortgage loan. A 25 basis points hike was expected. This will affect all type of loans, except fixed interest loans. Let's get prepare for higher monthly loan installment amount.
   
   
3. Higher RPGT
   Coming this 2014 budget to be tabled on 25th Oct, watch out for higher Real Property Gain Tax (RPGT). Currently, it was 15% for first two years and 10% for disposal from 3rd year to 5th year. Note: RPGT was much higher before 2008.

In our view, once DIBS was banned, developer no need to bear the interest, financier no need to bear the risk, new launching properties should be selling at lower price. Then, this is bad news for existing property, especially bought under DIBS before?

Example, phase one selling at RM500k under DIBS, phase two selling at RM500k without DIBS. No effect?

Think again... More supply now releasing for secondary market, assuming phase two also selling at same price, which is very good already. Right?