Saturday, February 25, 2012

Is it Viable for EPF to support Subprime Loan? (Feb2012)

In 2008, we have seen the catastrophic effect from the subprime mortgage loan in US. Even now, US is still struggling to fully recover from their worst financial crisis since Great Depression. The problems doesn't build in one day, in fact, it took years to snowball the problem. And, yet Malaysia seems like wanting to catch up with them by supporting the subprime loan. But, the unique part of our version is "using EPF monies"?


When news first broke out last month that EPF would be channelling RM1.5bil for a special public housing scheme, alarm bells sounded off for many contributors. Maybe EPF already knew the result for last year performance, it announced later that contributors are getting a decade-high dividend rate of 6%. Salute to EPF. Since EPF are doing so good even without the said "loan", then, why EPF have to take the risk to loan out to this scheme?

Afterthat, EPF published a statement claiming that the money is loaned to the Government, not to individuals. All the proceeds will go through a special purpose vehicle of Federal Territories Foundation (SPV FT Foundation) where terms and conditions are set.

YOU must be kidding, very obvious the end borrower was individuals, not Government. Where does the risk comes from? Ultimately, the individual borrowers are the one who determine the survival of the scheme.


What EPF gets?
For us, the most important detail that's available is 5.5% profit. The rest, it's very surface only without much details, such as the process of borrowers selections, criteria for loan application, and a lot of what if... Transparency is not there either.

No worry, Government can GUARANTEE the scheme mah!!! Yet, another question comes in. How does Government guaratee it? If something goes wrong to EPF monies, Government will use its money to compensate EPF?

Wait... Doesn't Government money belong to us too?

Friday, February 24, 2012

Antalet besökare på bloggen nu fler än på hemsidan!


Antalet “besökare” på min blog sedan starten 2007 är nu 63000. Detta är för första gången mer än antalet besökare på min officiella hemsida på Nationalekonomiska institutionen i Lund! Hemsidan har “bara” besökts av 62000 personer!!
Även om detta inte är några astronomiska siffror tycker jag detta är kul då bloggen är min egen skapelse så att säga. Dessutom har ju bloggen bara existerat en tredjedel så lång tid som hemsidan.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

TheEdge - Lipper Malaysia Fund Awards 2012

The highly regarded The Edge-Lipper Malaysia Fund Awards 2012 was held at the Kuala Lumpur convention Centre on 20 February 2012. This award is given out to honor the unit trusts and asset managers that have excelled in delivering consistently strong risk-adjusted performance, relative to peers. 


For those who missed out the show, below is the list of awards and its recipients.


Wait... Where is Public Mutual?
Please read the full article below.



Monday, February 20, 2012

Who can Save GREECE? (Feb 2012)

It's the time again for Greece to convince its counterparts that they are serious in cutting budget deficits. By doing so, Greece was to put on the lifeline (bailout) by European Union (EU) once again. The discussion of whether to save or not to save Greece had been dragging for one week time now. Why?


In Chinese, we say "we cannot see people die by not lending our hand". That's why China said they will help when the time arrives. The question is when is the right time? Until Greece go bankrupt? Or,  until Greece left EU?

Who can save Greece?
The answer to this very important question is very obvious. In Christian, they always emphasize on "we should take responsibilities on what we did", right? So, the solution lies in Greece hands. Not the country, but, the citizen, the people of Greece. It's time for them to come back to reality. Let's take Malaysia as a benchmark, they are working fewer hours than us, yet they are earning much better than us. GDP per capita of Greece is more than twice of our figures. How are they going to sustain whatever they are having now, such as attractive pension scheme and healthcare?




Technically, Greece already bankrupt with Debt to GDP of over 140. What does this mean? For every RM1 they earn, they spent RM1.40. It's overspent, it's over leveraged. It's time for Greece to unite together, shoulder the responsibilities with their Government, by taking pay cut, reform the pension scheme and healthcare system. By doing so, then only Greece can come out from debt crisis. Although the period is difficult, they must did it, don't procrastinate anymore. The longer they drag, the debt may snowball until a stage where "too big to burst".


Finance Malaysia really hopes Greece can come out of the bad times by themselves proudly. This goes to Italy, Belgium, Ireland, and Portugal too. We shall support Greece by visiting the beautiful country (of course, until all the riots were end).

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Glencore in the DRC: Building a case for shareholder activism

Over the last year I've become somewhat intrigued by Glencore and other physical commodity traders. Part of that interest comes from my work on commodity speculation, and the fact that much of the analysis around that issue has focused on investment banks and hedge funds rather than the companies that actually deal in physical commodities. Part comes from my fascination with figuring out how the global trade system works. Glencore has the added draw of being a notoriously opaque and secretive company, with a controversial and swashbuckling ex-captain who made a name for himself by doing deals that no-one else would do. Trying to figure out how their vast commodity operations work is a detective mystery if ever there was one.

In May 2011 they went public and listed on the London Stock Exchange. That means they sold ownership stakes to investors via the UK market. Technically speaking though, they only sold about 12% of the company, and technically speaking, they're not based in the UK. Rather, Glencore is based in the Canton of Zug in Switzerland, which is, to use the words of the Canton's publicity team, renowned for 'its business-friendly mentality'... which is to say... um... low taxes. For tasks other than tax accounting, Glencore has other cosy offices, like the one in London, on Berkeley Street, next door to the Sainsbury’s that I used to buy salads at back in 2010.

Stirring the copper kettle
Anyway, last week I published an article about Glencore in The Ecologist, after spending some time digging into some of their operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The editor put in a byline which kind of sums it up: "Moves by unknown shell companies to control lucrative natural resources may have cost Democratic Republic of Congo $1 billion in lost revenue, as UK-listed mining company Glencore under pressure to explain deals"

Sounds pretty interesting right? If you want more detail, take a look at the article, but basically it concerns two mines in Katanga Province - Mutanda and Kansuki - that Glencore co-owns and operates. Back in early 2011, their business partner in the deals - the Congolese state-owned mining company Gecamines - sold off its stakes to two shell companies listed in the British Virgin Islands, associated with a controversial diamond dealer called Dan Gertler, allegedly at a big discount. This is by no means a new story - it first emerged back in July 2011 - but it’s a story that’s been seriously underreported and one that remains unresolved. In September IMF expressed concern, and a UK MP called Eric Joyce continues to try raise awareness about these, and other deals in the DRC copper-belt (see map below).


I wanted to write about the Mutanda / Kansuki issue to help keep it in the public eye. I also noticed that most reports to date have focused on the DRC companies involved. I wanted to ask another question: How much does Glencore know about what went on?

So I did ask that, but when I phoned Glencore, it appeared they didn't think much of my query. I got to chat to Glencore's main media spokesman, a pleasant guy called Simon Buerk (who incidentally used to work as the spokesman for Shell, so I guess he’s pretty well practised with inquisitive journalists asking probing questions). Simon was actually very open and took substantial time to chat to me whilst driving on a Swiss highway. His message, as quoted in the Ecologist article, was simple: Glencore is aware of the accusations against Gecamines, but these deals involve parties external to Glencore and therefore it is irrellevant to ask their opinion on it.

It’s a line which I find difficult to accept fully. It’s true that Glencore is not legally responsible for the actions of its business associates, but can we not argue that they have a moral duty of care to their shareholders to make sure every deal they’re involved in has very robust overall governance? If nothing else, the highly non-transparent manner in which the deals took place should immediately raise concerns among the public, and shareholders, especially when it concerns the DRC, a country notorious for poor institutions. Can Glencore assure it's shareholders that they're associated with business partners that uphold robust governance standards?

Taking ownership
Then again, most of Glencore's shares are held by the company management, and a handful of institutional investors (which include Abu Dhabi based Aabar Investments, the sovereign wealth fund of Singapore, and BlackRock). Whilst the institutional investors could be encouraged to ask questions, it's difficult to get such organisations to do so. On the other hand, if I buy some Glencore shares, I become a part-owner of the company, with a theoretical right to raise my concerns with the management, who I would technically-speaking employ (see my earlier post about my experiences doing this with Centrica).

So, last Saturday I attended the FairPensions Shareholder Activism training day held at Amnesty UK's Shoreditch offices. It was attended by a whole range of people from civil society organisations, looking to use the power of owning shares to push forward progressive causes, whether it be countering tar sands in Canada, questioning arctic oil drilling, or combating tax avoidance. For my part, I took the opportunity to workshop some potential questions to ask Glencore management at their annual general meeting.

An interesting question to ask the executives would be something like this: "Recently UK MP Eric Joyce and the IMF raised serious concerns about the sale of stakes in mines you co-own in the DRC. Joyce, and others, claim that your initial partner in the mines secretly sold their stakes to shell companies associated with a person closely connected to the DRC president Joseph Kabila, and did so at hugely discounted prices. This raises the issue of what due dilligence processes you have in place when entering into joint ventures with partners in countries known for high levels of political risk. My questions to you are 1) Are you aware of these allegations related to your business associates, and 2) What procedures do you have in place to assure shareholders that the company will not be exposed to potential future damages arising from reputational risk and politically-imposed penalties and fines?"

I'd probably need to get the question more precise and I suspect the answer would be pretty generic, but that’s not the point. Glencore undoubtedly has a strong response, but the fact of the matter is that nobody has yet challenged them, and if there is one thing that I believe as a general principle, it’s that it’s always preferable to challenge power than to not challenge it.

Hey guys, can I call you StrataCore?
That's going to be all the more important now that Glencore has announced a probable merger with XStrata, which would create a commodity behemoth unlike any we've seen before (The press are calling them Glencore Xstrata, but I bet they'll call themselves StrataCore). Glencore specialises in commodity trading, and XStrata specialises in physical mining, and whatever the combined entity gets called, both companies think that there is great potential for 'synergies'. In particular, there will be increased potential for ‘geographical arbitrage’, which is a fancy way of saying the company will have superlative ability to source low price commodities whilst selling them in places where the prices are much higher. It plays into the hands of Glencore's core business model, which revolves around its ability to make money off global commodity market inefficiency (Indeed, the original way Glencore founder Marc Rich did this was by doing deals in places where commodity prices were depressed by political isolation or turmoil, a skill that requires aggression and significant exposure to gatekeepers who are politically exposed).

XSTRATA 'HEADQUARTERS' in ZUG - YEAH RIGHT
If nothing else, Glencore and XStrata will have synergies in the Canton of Zug, where both companies are 'based'. The combined entity will be able to share a mailbox, and a tab at the local pub.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

New IPO: Sentoria Group


Sentoria Group Berhad (Sentoria) is principally involved in two complementary core business divisions, namely property development and leisure and hospitality. Its property development business division specializes in township developments and resort city developments, while the leisure and hospitality business division owns / leases, manages and operates the hotels / resorts and theme park facilities and attractions.




Its Bukit Gambang Resort City (BGRC) leisure and hospitality facility in Kuantan is the largest integrated resort city in Malaysia that resides on a 547-acre land area and features multiple attractions in a single location.

The Listing Exercise


Future Income Generating Plan...

Looking ahead, Sentoria plans to enhance its recurring income stream from BGRC, by adding new attractions such as Safari Park, Aquarium Park, Adventure Land, and expand the MICE division by constructing a grand ballroom with 3,050 pax capacity to increase the average revenue and length of stay per visitor. Product mix will also be expanded by constructing themed villas (Global Heritage South – Amsterdam, Venice, and Barcelona villa etc) in BGRC, and commercial properties to add development value to acquired land.

As for its property development division, the company is currently looking for opportunities to diversify to other states, such as Selangor and Negeri Sembilan. Currently, it has 237 acres of land, mainly in Kuantan and BGRC, with an estimated GDV of RM1.48bn.



Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Higher Credit Card Financing Rates Effective March 2012

Attention to all credit card holders (especially for the following mentioned banks), interest rates for outstanding credit card balances, and late payments will be revised higher. At least 3 banks, namely Hong Leong Bank, Ambank and Citibank already published the rate revision effective March 2012 on respective website.


What did Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said?
According to The Star Newspaper, a spokesman from BNM said the repricing of rates was not due to directive from the central bank, explaining that it was done by the banks. "However, the new rates are withing the range stipulated in Bank Negara's credit card guidelines," he told The Star.

Rationale behind the revision

Beautifully, banks said the revision was done to promote sound financial management by saying that the move would encourage card holders with outstanding debts to pay them off. But, what we understand is that for those who are in debt right now, they were being slapped with a higher finance charges plus late payments charges. Meaning, they are being drown from river to sea, pushing them into deeper debt. Is this called sound financial management?


Perhaps, YES, it is a very sound risk management for banks, definitely not card holders. Why banks revise the rates now? Well, we guess that banks are foreseeing a tighter money supply and potential deteriorating quality of loans amid the ongoing European Debt crisis. They have their strong point though.


FAQ
If I am a new card holder, what is the financed rate applied to me?
The highest finance charges will be applied (etc 18% p.a for Hong Leong Bank). The applicable tiered finance charges will only be effective until such time when you have the minimum 12 months repayment record with the bank.

Monday, February 13, 2012

Minjian jiedai på webben!

För något knappt år sedan skrev jag ett inlägg om ett kinesiskt fenomen som kallas Minjian jiedai. Detta fenomen är tydligen någon sorts förbjuden ”under-bordet” långivning från förmögna kineser till små och medelstora kinesiska företag. Mestadels är det tydligen kortfristiga lån. Anledningen till att denna typ av utlåning florerar i Kina, är de välkända problemen för kinesiska företag att få tag på kapital.

Jag har också skrivit om mikrofinans i Kina tidigare. För den som är intresserad finns min artikel Structured Microfinance in China på webben..

Med denna blog vill jag bara uppmärksamma den intresserade läsaren om att det finns fler relaterade och lika intressanta kinesiska innovationer. Peer-to-peer (P2P) långivningswebsidor är tydligen ett nytt fenomen som spritt sig runtomkring i Kina. Fokus är på mikrolån och anledningen till att det blomstrar just i Kina är svårigheten där att få lån till privata företag i mellan- och småstorlek. För oss som är intreserade av mikrofinans är detta ett av de mer tydliga tecknen på att mikrofinans börjar ta fart även i Kina, där det tidigare varit kraftigt underdimensionerat. På fyra år har antalet mikrobanker ökat sjufaldigt! Och bara det senaste året har utlåningen fördubblats!

Tydligen finns det ett hundratal P2P långivningswebsidor och även om detta låter mycket så ska vi komma ihåg att det finns i runda slängar 50 miljoner mikroentreprenörer i Kina. Creditease med 100000 låntagare uppges vara en av de största och snart kommer de med en engelskspråkig websida.....

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

New Fund: Pacific ELITE Global Dividend Fund

The Fund aims to achieve capital growth and income in the medium to long term by investing in a portfolio of global equities with a consistent long-term track record of paying dividends. Having said so, the focus will be on income, derived from a mix of dividends and interest/profit sharing income. Capital appreciation will be a lesser focus.



The Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking to invest in a portfolio of dividend type equities that have shown a good track record of paying dividends; investors who seek capital growth and income; and investors who have a medium to long-term investment horizon.

Strategy
The Fund will invest predominantly in a portfolio of global dividend type equity securities with a track record of consistent and attractive dividend payouts. In addition to attractive dividend yields, the Manager will take into account the existing fundamentals of companies and their medium to long-term ability to continually grow their business and hence, dividend payout potential. These equities must have a track record of a minimum seven years of consecutive dividend payments.

The Fund may also invest in companies that do not have a minimum seven-year consecutive dividend payment track record but that have paid dividends in seven out of the last 10 years. Companies with no dividend track record but with strong fundamentals and cash positions and that are likely to make future dividend payments may also be considered. This will be limited to a maximum 15% of the Fund’s NAV. The Fund’s NAV that is not invested in equities will be invested in cash, Malaysian fixed income securities and money market instruments.

Asset Allocation
Equity allocation:
• Minimum: 70% of the Fund’s NAV
• Maximum: 100% of the Fund’s NAV
Cash, fixed income securities and money market instruments allocation:
• Maximum: 30% of the Fund’s NAV

Investor Profile
  • seek to invest in a portfolio that is invested in dividend type equities that have shown a good track record of paying dividends;
  • seek capital growth and income; and
  • have a medium to long-term investment horizon.

What is so special about the Fund?
A key distinctive feature of this Fund is the fee structure which gives investors the opportunity to enter into the investment at NO cost. It is also unique in that it specifically seeks dividend type equities with a good track record of paying dividends. These equities must have a track record of a minimum seven years of consecutive dividend payments. The Fund will also be actively managed to optimise returns and reduce risk to investors.



Source: Pacific Mutual Berhad

Friday, February 3, 2012

OSK Strategy and Outlook (Feb 2012)


Global Rally ex Malaysia. While global markets rallied in Jan 2012 to post their best January performance since 1994, Malaysia languished as an exception among all the major markets in East Asia, thus strangely validating our Sell call on the Malaysian market in January. Globally, the economic outlook in the US remained stable with 66% of companies that reported earnings thus far beating estimates. While the situation was different in Europe with the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) losing its AAA rating with S&P, nonetheless, the slush of liquidity unveiled by the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) allowed European markets to rally accordingly as bond yields in Italy declined dramatically.



Takeover spare continues. While December saw the privatization offers for KFC, QSR and YTL Cement as well as rumours of Proton’s stake sale by Khazanah, January saw more of the same including:

  1. DRB-Hicom acquiring Khazanah’s 42.7% stake in Proton for RM5.50 a share.
  2. Can One acquiring a 32.9% stake in Kian Joo for RM1.65 a share
  3. Samling Strategic Corporation’s plans to privatise Lingui and Glenealy at an indicative price of RM1.63 and RM7.50 per share respectively.



Comeback kings. Top Gainers for January were comeback kings which had languished in
2011 but which were either driven by fundamentals (such as JCY) or rumours (such as Maybulk). Sector-wise, Tech (driven by JCY) and Transport (driven by Maybulk and MAS) as well as construction (by Mudajaya and Gamuda) gave the best returns for the month.


OUTLOOK: BETTER TO BE NIMBLY FLEXIBLE THAN DOGMATICALLY WRONG

Right but still… While we were correct in our calls for the market in Jan 2012, calling a SELL on the broad market and choosing “alternative” Buys as our Top 5 Buys for the month, still the market performed better than we had expected while global markets soared despite a patchy month of headlines. While equity markets do tend to outperform in January given the re-balancing of portfolios in a new year, the strength of the market thus far has taken us by surprise.



Be prepared for an upgrade. If indeed the KLCI performs well over the next 15 days inline with a global rally, we would be forced to rethink our bearish view for 1H12. Instead, we may upgrade our call on the market to a NEUTRAL from the current Sell, and may well promote more cyclical sectors such as Oil & Gas and Construction. While the market may subsequently turn south after a 1Q rally, still the flush of liquidity in the system may keep it resilient for most of the year. For now, we remain Defensive with Consumer stocks and other defensive mid-cap plays likely to outperform still in the short term.



Top Buys are Defensives with Good Results expected. 
With February being a results seasons month, we go back to fundamentals to select our Top Buys. Four of our Top 5 “Alternative” Buys outperformed the KLCI in January, namely Sarawak Oil Palms, Supermax, JCY and Old Town. For February, therefore, our selection of Top Buys for the month of February is mainly culled from these expected defensive out-performers, namely:


  1. KPJ Healthcare – While results for the 4Q are typically not stellar (doctors tend to go on holidays and patients tend to postpone treatments where possible given the festive season), the excitement surrounding the upcoming listing of Integrated Healthcare Holdings could be enough to spur the share price upwards.
  2. Malaysia Building Society (MBSB) – We are expecting a strong set of results for the company for 4Q11 and the recent civil servant pay hike in 2012 should mean management should provide a decent enough outlook going forward.
  3. QL Resources – After two quarters of lackluster earnings due to poor fish catch in Sabah, we understand the catch improved in 4Q11. Also, expansion plans in Indonesia and Vietnam are largely on track.
  4. Media Chinese – Expecting the best ever quarterly results in 4Q11, we still see many catalysts for ad spending in 2012 including the General Elections, 2012 Olympics and Euro 2012.
  5. Padini – Our new Top Buy in the Consumer Retail space, a recent visit confirms that the company has an excellent profit track record, solid management, a good growth story (in the form of value fashion outlet Brands Outlet) and cheap valuations (below 10x forward PER). What’s not to like?


Source: OSK Research

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Är du rik?


Den andra Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report kom ut härom månaden. Den utgör intressant läsning tycker jag. Naturligtvis är rapporten särskilt intressant för banker, pensionsbolag och försäkringsbolag men jag tycker även småsparare kan hitta en del intressant fakta i rapporten. Allt för att hjälpa oss med våra placeringar! Läs den!

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Här följer ett axplock av allmänna fakta som alltid är bra att känna till för den finansintresserade även om de kanske inte kan användas till att öka din förmögenhet (förutom i egenskap av sporre vill säga):

+ Till att börja med kan man notera att den genomsnittliga förmögenhet över inkomst kvoten är 2.4 i den rika världen och 1 i den fattiga. Var ligger du?

+ Den totala förmögenheten i världen är 231 tusen miljarder dollar i juni 2011 (USD231000bn). Det kan jämföras med de 2 tusen eller så miljarder dollar som måste avskrivas i samband med Lehmann brothers krisen och den handfull tusen miljarder dollar som kommer gå ”förlorad” p.g.a. euro-krisen. D.v.s. någon procent av världens förmögenhet. Är det mkt?

+ Antalet SEK-miljardärer i världen, alltså miljardärer i svenska kronor räknat, dvs. sjukt svinrika individer som utan tvekan kvalar in som internationella jetsetters och vars barn och barnbarn kan leva extremt lyxliv utan att arbeta en dag i sina liv i sekel framöver, är 10000-20000 enligt mina estimat. Inte så många vad?

+ Antalet HNW individer (high net worth individuals har en förmögenhet över 1 miljon dollar) i världen är just nu ungefär 30 miljoner stk. Du är inte en av dem vad?

+ För att tillhöra den rikaste procenten i världen behöver du 712000 dollar (de äger tillsammans 44% av allt som finns). Är du en av dem?

+ Den genomsnittlige vuxne personen som går på jordens yta har en förmögenhet på 51000 dollar. Är du en av dem då?

+ Två tredjedelar av alla vuxna i världen har mindre än 10000 dollar. Mer än så har du väl?

+ Som tur är (?) är fördelningen skev så för att ligga precis i mitten (medianen) räcker det med 4200 dollar. Mer än så har du väl alldeles säkert, annars hade du nog inte läst så här långt?

+ 1/3 av världens dollarmiljonärer finns i USA och 1/3 i Europa men mer intressant är kanske att hela 2% faktiskt finns i lilla Sverige. Fantastiskt vad!

---------------------------------

Ps. Förmögenhet mäts genomgående som reala + finansiella tillgångar – skulder utslaget på jordens 4.5 miljarder vuxna.