Monday, January 31, 2011

Interview with Pearly Lam

After graduation, Pearly Lam was searching for her dreams as anyone out there. Despite numerous obstacles faced coupled with indifferent views of many people, she went for her own way to start a business. "The most important thing is I truly know and understand what I want in my future. The determination to become successful will decide how far I can survive in this society", said Pearly during the interview with Finance Malaysia.



"I always believe in making things happen, and NOT waiting for things to be happened." Pearly Lam
Interview highlights:

Without any experience and knowledge of doing business, how you overcome it?
Although I don't have any experience before, the determination to start my own business leads me to cross the first step. I believe no matter how big is the dream, how long is the journey would be, we need to start the very important first step to make our dreams a reality.

For me, experience and knowledge can be gained along the way, as long as we keeps on learning through the processes. Of course, fear is always with you when you're new, especially during uncertain times. And to overcome it, self-motivation and equipping oneself with the positive thinking and mindset is my way.

Any advice for fresh graduates?
I believe that most of the fresh graduates have their own big dream and some of them are confused at what they really want in life. My advice is no matter which career path you choose, or what business you want to start with, you should have the positive mindset. What happens today would be a lesson for tomorrow.

What would be your greatest investment so far?
Until now, I don't really have any investment except my business. But, my most valuable asset was those part-timers or freelancers who had worked with me. Without them, I wouldn't reach where I am today. Thank you.

Finally, what's your say in 2011?
This year, my focus is to grow the company further while improving my personal skills in managing the business and man-power is a must. In 2011, I hope that the people around us would grow together and achieve our dreams together.


Finance Malaysia thanks Pearly for the interview, and wish her success in the journey ahead.
For more information about Elegimos, please click the links below:

Sunday, January 30, 2011

No CNY Reunion Dinner for Stanley Ho?

Just one week left before the Rabbit Year CNY, local and international press are publishing the high-profile Stanley Ho's family feud. While we're busily shopping during this festive season, many people are chasing the "family drama", just like another popular Hong-Kong based production. Maybe, TVB's directors should consider converting the reality into a story-line drama/movie. I'm sure this could be a blockbuster-liked production.

Hong Kong and Macau tycoon Stanley Ho
SJM Holdings' most popular casino, Grand Lisboa
Obviously, fighting for money is very common nowadays especially for those wealthy families. To spice it up, the bigger the family was, the conflicts gets even greater.

Reportedly, Stanley Ho who has 4 branches of family and 17 children sure will intensified the degree of fighting.

Source: Wikipedia
Who is Stanley Ho?
  • Stanley Ho, also known as Ho Hung-sun, is an entrepreneur in Hong Kong and Macau. 
  • Nickname "King of Gambling", he get the government-granted Macau's gambling monopoly 40 years ago.
  • Hong Kong's 13th richest person with a net worth of USD 3.1 billion in 2010.
  • Businesses includes entertainment, tourism, shipping, real estate, banking and air transport.
Stanley Ho's prized asset, SJM Holdings Limited...
  • One of the casino operators in Macau.
  • Market Capitalization : HK$ 73.63 billion
Source: SJM Holdings Limited
Source: Bloomberg
Depending on the outcome of the wealth distribution saga, Stanley Ho's CNY celebration will be well-received by the most happily inherited family. I doubt the saga will end just before CNY for Stanley to enjoy his old-age celebration with at least one of his four families.

Good luck, Stanley.

Source: Bloomberg, SJM Holdings Limited, WSJ, Wikipedia

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Extractions from BNM monetary policy statement

As expected, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% yesterday. This was the 3rd time in a row that BNM left it unchanged. Are there any hints by BNM on Malaysia's economy this year? We can explore the "hidden messages" from the monetary policy statement as below:


Regional Front:
  • While advanced economies continue to register modest growth, most emerging economies have experienced strong growth.
  • For Asian region, domestic economic activity continues to support the growth momentum amid weaker external demand.
  • Shifts in global liquidity have resulted in significant capital flows into the emerging economies, in particular, Asian region, and have brought with it risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.
  • The region is also being affected by global inflationary pressure arising from the higher commodity and food prices.
On Malaysia:
  • Recent indicators point towards a sustained expansion in private sector activity.
  • External demand, however, was affected by the slower global growth.
  • Malaysian economy is expected to grow at a steady pace in 2011, underpinned by continue firm expansion in domestic demand.
  • Private consumption will be supported by sustained employment and income growth.
  • Private investment activity will be supported by domestic-oriented sectors and the expansion of new growth industries.
 On Inflation:
  • Domestic headline inflation rose towards the end of 2010 albeit remained low at 2.2%.
  • The increased was mainly on account of higher food and energy prices.
  • Prices are expected to increase at a modest pace in the coming months, driven primarily by rising global commodity and food prices.
  • The assessment is that inflation will continue to be driven by supply factors with limited evidence of excess demand exerting pressure on prices.

BNM Conclusions:
  • BNM considers the current monetary policy stance as appropriate and consistent with current assessment of the economic growth and inflation prospects.
  • The stance continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.
  • Going forward, additional policy tools such as the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) and macro-prudential lending measures may be considered to avoid the risks of macroeconomic and financial imbalances.
Finance Malaysia view:
  • We expected inflation to rise at a faster pace in 2011
  • BNM to continue hiking interest rate in second-half 2011
  • OPR potentially be raised by 50-75 basis points to 3.25-3.50%
  • Bank's loan growth will slow if SRR was raised
Source: BNM website

For full BNM monetary policy statement, click here.


Related posts:
70% Loan to Value
How BNM OPR hiking affecting the market?

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

KL Mart after 6 consecutive days of Dropping (27/01/2011)

If you ask any broker or remisier out there, they may show their unity in explaining the 2 weeks down trend of KLCI, by saying "Pre-CNY profit-taking ma". Sounds so familiar every year? Yes. This is a very good excuse for them or even fund managers to explain the sudden down trend, which caught many investors who jumps in the 2011 new year rally just three weeks ago.

Pre-CNY surprise?

When will market rebound?

Today, investors are experiencing a KLCI rebound, be it technically or not, right before CNY next week. Before this, many of us are predicting a "risky" January, given the rich valuation KLCI commanding after 2010 run-up. In December 2010, we are still in a very cautious mode, only to find out that KLCI reaches a fresh one week all-time high right after 2011.

The rally caught investors by surprise, and the great profit-taking too...
KLCI are expected to rebound after yesterday morning staggering 20 points slump, only to recover shortly to close 6 points down. Technically, this shows a "hanging hammer" sign which signals a potential technical rebound soon. (Proofed by today's performance)

Would it still counted as "Pre-CNY" profit-taking?

Finance Malaysia thinks that the market is in an opposite trend comparing to previous years. Normally, the so called profit-taking will kicks-in right before CNY (supposedly today). However, this year is a little bit different. The profit-taking activities came earlier, and investors are going back to the market right before CNY. Would it be a double profit-taking this year? Let's see...
After the current down which ends yesterday, we may look at those stocks which battered down most since 17th Jan high.
RHBRI: Bottom 20 stocks under RHBRI coverage ranked by Absolute performance since 17th January 2011 High






Tuesday, January 25, 2011

New Fund: CIMB-Principal Strategic Income Bond Fund

Post-financial crisis, bonds remain the preferred asset class for more conservative investors because it is less volatile than equities. Asia, for example, remains a sound investment destination with rapid urbanization as a younger and higher population growth will necessitate greater infrastructure spending in the coming years.


To provides the golden opportunity, CIMB-Principal Asset Management Bhd has launched a new fund, that allows investors to capitalise on Asia, Australia, New Zealand and Middle East's improving credit conditions given the high potential of more rating upgrades.

"The demand for high-quality bonds in these targeted countries continues to remain high given the low interest rates outlook in the US and Europe, and this should support bond prices for the next few years. In addition, the slower economic recovery of these developed markets is shifting investment appetite to Asia. Combined with the likelihood of bond rating upgrades, this will mean potential good returns for investors who want to invest in regional high growth prospects in a stable manner." said Campbell Tupling, chief executive of CIMB-Principal Asset Management.

More about the fund....

This is a close-ended fund that aims to provide regular income and capital preservation through investments in predominantly bonds and other fixed and floating rate securities.

What's the strategy?
Generally, the fund adopts a buy-and-hold strategy by investing 70%-90% of its NAV in a diversified portfolio of bonds and other fixed and floating rate securities issued by governments, government agencies, supranational organizations and corporate issuers. The fund may also invest in structured products and/or derivatives, in which the underlying are linked to the above mentioned securities.

What's the bonds/securities rating you're looking at?
The fund may invest in investment grade securities and high yield securities, subject to a maximum 40% of its NAV in securities rated below "Baa" by Moody's or equivalent rated by S&P and Fitch.

The fund is suitable for investors who:
  • have 3 years investment goals
  • are not planning to have access to their money in the next 3 years
  • are seeking exposure to investment opportunities in fixed income securities
Source: CIMB-Principal
Click here to download prospectus
 
Related post:

Monday, January 24, 2011

Globalization Index 2010: Malaysia better than BRIC?

Brought to you by "Ernst & Young", the Globalization Index was created to measure the extent to which the 60 largest economies (by GDP) are connecting to the rest of the world. The indicators fall into 5 broad categories:
  1. Openness to trade
  2. Capital movements
  3. Exchange of technology and ideas
  4. Labor movements
  5. Cultural integration
 
How did Malaysia fared in 2010?
Yes... Malaysia perform better by sitting on the 27th place, one spot ahead of US!!! On top of that, we're globalizing better than BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries. Of course, the Index has its method of measurements.

Top 10 ranking
How did the Index measures?
The Index measures "relative" rather than "absolute" globalization. This means that an economy's trade, investment, technology, labor and cultural integration with other economies is measured relative to its GDP rather than by the absolute value of these elements being exchanged.

As a result, smaller economies (like Hong Kong and Singapore) that depend on international integration will tend to have a high level of globalization, while larger economies (like US and BRIC) that can rely on a big domestic market will tend to have a lower level, even though the total amounts exchanged internationally involved may be much greater.

The Index, therefore, reflects the degree to which the global integration of an economy is observable or experienced from within that economy.

Key highlights of Globalization Index 2010:
Once again, technology remains the key driver behind deepening globalization. In the emerging markets, the rapid adoption of the internet and mobile technologies is a powerful engine behind the greater integration of trade, capital, culture and labor. And, in some cases, it leapfrogging the West in terms of their infrastructure.

Click here to view the full list of the Globalization Index 2010

Google News - the news aggregator! – Part II

Some of you might have seen the news piece about Google suggesting a novel way of constructing an alternative inflation measure using their huge Google database of web shopping data!

------------------------

Now, since I have suggested an alternative way of using Google’s data I find this suggestion particularly intriguing. As I have mentioned in an earlier blog Google News - the news aggregator I wrote the first (as far as I know) academic paper, back in 2008, on the use of news aggregators in finance:

Byström, H., (2009), News Aggregators, Volatility and the Stock Market, Economics Bulletin 29 (4), 2009, pp 2679-2688.

In that paper I discuss how news aggregators can be used in a financial context. Among other things I suggest that Google News could be used to construct an alternative to the widely used “fear indicator”, i.e. the VIX-index.

-------------------------

It seems Google themselves share my optimism about using their web services to measure financial parameters in an efficient way. While my focus was on measuring the amount of fear in the market using one of their web pages their suggestion is to measure the price changes in the economy using products sold over some of their shopping web pages. And just like my measure is an alternative measure, their inflation measure is an alternative measure since the goods bought and sold on their web is different from those included in the traditional CPI measure. Both approaches of course have their pros and cons but personally I like the fact that mortgage payments are excluded from the Google Price Index (GPI).

It seems that Google is stepping up its attempts to conquer the world! I cannot say that I overly like that scenario but considering that I have just switched to Microsoft’s Windows 7 and Office 2010 (involuntarily), and considering how horrible these two Microsoft products are, I can only say one thing: Go Google Go!!

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Bank's Chinese New Year Promotions

Leap, Leap, Leap to greater prosperity in the year of Rabbit.
In conjunction with the coming festive season, banks are going all out to lure their customers from all angle. It ranges from deposit, investment, insurance, credit cards, and of course shopping and dining. In order to stay relevant, Finance Malaysia is proud to highlights some of the promotions.

Deposit

CNY Promotion: Hong Leong Saving Account
CNY Promotion: UOB Deposit
Investment
Public Bank is offering auspicious works of art (prosperity fish, peach, and bowl) to customers who invests a minimum of RM50,000 in Unit Trust, plus RM2,000 in Bancassurance or RM50,000 in Foreign Currency Fixed Deposit.

CNY Promotion: Public Bank (Investment + Banca / Foreign Currency FD)
Eat, Eat, Eat...
Enjoy FREE salmon "yee sang" with your AmBank credit card

Enjoy 'Extravagant 8 Menu' for just RM888++ with Standard Chartered credit cards.




Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Why ASEAN will failed to host World Cup?

It was reported that ASEAN, which comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, is going big in World Cup. Since all of these countries did not manage to qualify on the pitch, they're going through back-doors.
ASEAN is going to bid for FIFA World Cup 2030 !!!


Wow... When I first heard about this news, I am very excited. But, after calming down and figured it out, I doubt ASEAN could succeed in bidding the world's most popular event because of the following reasons. Second surprise came, when Malaysia was said to lead the pack for the bidding. Malaysia, the unlikely team which became the winner of ASEAN cup recently, may found ourselves "syok sendiri".


Common Sense
  • Our level is nowhere near the World Cup level. Although we still have plenty of time before 2030, ASEAN needs much efforts to up the level, at least on par with South Korea.
  • To select a team who represents all the hosting countries, it would be very difficult. By then, the supposedly ASEAN team will became "rojak" team. Sure, there will be heated arguments on which players shortlisted and how many players from each countries.
  • Each countries have their own identity and culture, which needs to be show casts to the world given the world wide coverage. Would Malaysia want to lose our color?
Economic Sense
  • From the countries involved, who will be the chosen host? And, where will be the grand final? Because, that important locations would determine the profitability of the multi-billions event.
  • Since ASEAN do not have a common currency regime, some countries may lose out to another due to different currency exchange rates.
  • How much costs would each members shared?
Finance Malaysia suggests that Malaysia could bid for the World Cup by teaming up with Singapore. Two is better than the whole ASEAN. Of course, if can, we can host the entire event ourselves.

Related posts:

Monday, January 17, 2011

Latest news on SP Setia (Jan 18)

Lately, SP Setia is in full limelight in local bourse due to some of the announcements made. And, yesterday, SP Setia was awarded a contract and proposed some of the corporate exercises subsequently. Below is some of the useful summary for investors keeping abreast with the latest developments:


The Bangsar land deal
  • SP Setia was acquiring a 40-acre land along Jalan Bangsar via a land swap deal
  • Government to acquire land in Setia Alam from SP Setia
  • Develop a fully integrated health and research complex to be known as 1NIH Complex in Setia Alam under the Ministry of Health's purview
  • Redevelop the swapped land into an integrated mixed residential and commercial project and give the Government a 20% profit sharing.
Source: OSK Research

The Proposed Corporate Exercises
  • Proposed private placement of up to 15% of paid-up share capital via book-building for the following purposes:
  • - RM6bn KL EcoCity, which comprises a corporate tower block and retail podium
  • - Setia City project, which comprises a convention centre, corporate HQ and related infrastructure
  • - Fulton Lane project. A residential condominium project in Melbourne, Australia
  • Proposed 1-for-2 bonus issue after the completion of the said private placement
Source: Company, OSK Research, RHB Research

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Fraudulent Insurance Claims and YOU

Recently, theStar highlighting a serious issue pertaining to insurance claims - Fraud Claims. It even started with staggering paragraph "Fingers have been chopped off, medical ailments exaggerated and even death faked - all for the purpose of fraudulent insurance claims".

Among the issues:
  • RM500 mil in bogus insurance claims are detected each year
  • At least 2 insurance firms have folded as a result of high compensation claims compounded by fraud
  • Insurance firms fight back by setting up special fraud detection units

Regarding to this topic, Finance Malaysia would like to shares some views here pertaining to the effects on Malaysians as a whole. And, most importantly, the impact of insurer would definitely pass it to people insured. Why I said so?

First, you must understand how insurance companies compute their premiums charged to each clients. If the insurer is financially stronger, it may charged a lower premium for the same amount of coverage on its policies. In other words, if an insurer is facing financial problems, it may raised its premium charged, even to their existing loyal customers.

If your friend is making a fraud case, let it be?

For example, one of your friend is making fraud claims by collaborating with a particular doctor and agent to issue a false physician statement. Subsequently, your friend could received compensation from insurance company based on that statement. Of course, you can closed one eye and let it be. But, your inaction would lead to higher claim amount being paid by that insurance company for the wrong reasons. If those act was rampant everywhere, insurance companies could raised its premium imposed. So luckily, if you're insured by the same company, you could be a victim of your friend's unlawful act.

Supposedly, we should advise whoever out there to stop making fraud claims as it may abuse the whole insurance systems. Objective of getting an insurance is to transfer our risk to third party, hoping that we could financially went through unfortunate events which may happened,  NOT to gain from an insurance.

Think about this:
What is the purpose of insurance?
Protection or Investment?

Thursday, January 13, 2011

New Fund: RHB-GS BRIC Equity Fund

After being granted the licenses of fund management and corporate finance last year, Goldman Sachs has since establish an exclusive partnership with RHB Investment Management Bhd to jointly develop fund management products for distribution to investors in Malaysia. RHB-GS BRIC Equity Fund is the maiden fund from the partnership, and also the first fund being launched by RHB Investment Management this year.


The fund's objective is to seek to achieve long-term capital appreciation through investment in a collective investment scheme, which invests primarily in securities of Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese companies.

Investment Strategy...
The feeder fund will invest at least 95% of the Fund's NAV in "Goldman Sachs BRICs Portfolio" (Target Fund), which is a portfolio of Goldman Sachs Funds incorporated on 5th November 1992.



Click here to Download Prospectus
 

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

New Fund: OSK-UOB Asia Financials Fund

As the conduit of everyday business, the financial sector lies at the centre of any modern economy. Asia is in an exciting stage of economic development and its financial sector, which mirrors this dynamism, is set to enjoy strong growth potential.


Participate in Asia's financial sector that stands at the heart of Asia's investment story. OSK-UOB is introducing the OSK-UOB Asia Financials Fund, with tag line: "The Heart of Asia's Investment Story".

Key highlights during the new fund launching:-
  • Banks are poised to grow with strong balance sheets
  • Life insurance and consumer credit are still below the levels of more developed nations
  • Greater capital market activities are also due to benefit Asian investment banks
  • Asia, excluding Japan, is expected to register an estimated GDP of 8% in 2011
  • Asia Pacific region is also expected to surpass North America as the region with the largest high net worth individual wealth by 2013
  • This translates to for financial institutions, especially wealth management activities
This is a feeder fund that will invest principally in one of the sub-funds under the umbrella of the United Financials Multi-Strategy Funds managed by UOB Asset Management Limited, Singapore, that is the United Asia Financials Fund (UAFF).

The indicative asset allocation is as follows:
  • > 95% of NAV invest into United Asia Financials Fund
  • 2% - 5% of NAV in liquid assets, etc money market instruments and deposits
The fund is suitable for investors who:
  • wish to tap into the growth prospects of the Asian financial sector (excluding Japan)
  • are willing to accept a higher risk in their investments to obtain potentially higher returns in the long term
  • seek capital growth
  
Source: OSK-UOB unit trust management bhd

Friday, January 7, 2011

Global Food Crisis, a Repeat of 2008?

KLCI is grappling up for a successful 4 days in a row this week, and perhaps today is the 5th day of record breaking level. However, I am concerned about the health and the sustainability of the market, after reading a report by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). And, one of the popular Mandarin Dailies highlighted the potential food crisis as its main topic today. Finance Malaysia did some analysis, and would like to comment on the issue which could be a hot topic for many nations very soon, including Malaysia.


In fact, international prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recent months, some sharply. This has led to a level near to its peak in June 2008.

What causing the prices to increased?
  • worsening outlook for crops in key producing countries, which require large draw downs of stocks and result in tighter global supply and demand balances
  • of course, weakening USD, which continues to sustain the prices of nearly all commodities
  • continuous money pouring in for commodities investing too (spicing up speculations)
Fault of commodities investors?
Globally, investors are trying to hedge against inflation, trying to make profit as much as possible. These return hunger investors prompt investment banks to structure and roll-out commodities or resources fund, which invest in commodities related shares and futures. In fact, the world is trading according to the market price, which is the said futures contract. Consequently, commodities investors indirectly pushing up the prices. Are you one of those investors?

Source: FAO website
Repeat of 2008 global food crisis
Although food reserves are larger now after the 2008 lesson, a series of unexpected downward revisions to crop forecasts in several major producing countries pushes world prices to an alarming stage and at a much faster pace than in 2007/08.

As such, Finance Malaysia expects global food crisis is building its momentum now. A repeat of 2008 global food crisis will led us to experience the same scenario listed below, let's be prepared:
  • Surging oil price, etc petrol, soy oil, palm oil
  • Surging sugar price (people rushing to hypermarkets everyday)
  • Surging wheat price (subsequently bread, mee, kuey teow...)
  • Riot and demonstrations held weekly, if not daily
  • Governments struggles to contain inflation
Source: Various, FAO website

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Sunway Nexis... Connect. Work. Play

To capture the feel-good sentiment of local property market, Sunway City Bhd launched its latest integrated mixed development, Sunway Nexis, located at Dataran Sunway, Petaling Jaya. It was launched following the success of Sunway Giza, which open its doors recently.


The development is being undertaken by Sunway Damansara Sdn Bhd, with a gross development value (GDV) of RM500 million.

  • A mixed commercial development sprawling over 5.83 acres
  • Situated at the junction of Persiaran Surian and Jalan PJU 5/1A
  • Located within the main commercial hub in Dataran Sunway
  • Well serviced by a number of highways including NKVE, LDP and SPRINT
  • Modern 3 storey retail shops priced at RM4million and above
  • A 13-storey office suites block, priced more than RM 700,000 each unit
  • A 20-storey flexi office block

Source: Sunway City Bhd, Business Times

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Högre realräntor på ålderns höst!


Jag har länge mött det ensidiga fokus på sparandeöverskottet i världen och dess viktiga roll i att hålla realräntor nere med stor skepsis. Varför hör man så sällan om det investeringsunderskott världen sett under snart 30 år? Den globala ekonomin har under denna tid dominerats av de rika länderna (EU, USA, Japan) och där är det tydligt att de stora efterkrigs-investeringarna (1945-1975) inte följts upp med investeringar i samma takt under den nästföljande 30-års perioden (1975-2005). Se bara på SJ och dess knappa 200km/h! Eller Heathrow flygplatsen med dess sunkiga heltäckningsmattor! Eller fastighetsstocken i Europa (miljonprogram etc.). De är alla eftersatta och det är något man blir påmind om varje gång man reser till (eller i) ett utvecklingsland. Har ni flugit till Changi-flygplasen i Singapore någon gång? Har ni tagit tåget mellan Shanghai och Hangzhou i Kina någon gång? Har ni bott på affärshotell längs Sukhumwit i Bangkok någon gång? Har ni åkt på en nybyggd motorväg i Dehli eller Bombay i Indien någon gång? Gör det, och tänk på vad det kommer att innebära för realräntorna när denna typ av investeringar sprids över en värld där utvecklingsländerna kommer att utgöra en allt mer dominerande andel samtidigt som sparandet ligger kvar på samma nivå som idag (mycket pekar dessutom på att det är troligare att det globala sparandet sjunker framöver.....).

Allt detta är något som McKinsey Global Institute (managementkonsulten McKinsey & Co.s forskningsavdelning) uppmärksammar i deras emminenta rapport från december 2010 ”Farewell to cheap capital? The implications of long-term shifts in global investment and saving”.

I denna rapport lyfter McKinsey på ett övertygande sätt fram skäl till just det jag nämnt ovan, d.v.s. varför vi kan förvänta oss kraftigt ökande realräntor globalt sett över de närmsta decennierna. De påpekar dessutom att skiftet troligen kommer redan under den närmsta 5-års perioden och de fortsätter med att lista saker som hushåll, företag och regeringar måste tänka på för att tackla detta regimskifte.

Som investerare ser jag framförallt en viktig poäng: det är möjligt att de senaste 30 årens dominans av aktier över fixed income är över! Detta skulle alltså betyda att bankkonton och obligationer över det långa loppet återigen kommer att generera avkastning i klass med aktier och fastigheter. Naturligtvis kommer dagens obligationsinnehavare förlora en hel del när räntorna stiger, och naturligtvis är det först i det långa loppet som aktier (och bostadspriser) kommer att lida av denna realränteuppgång men det gäller som alltid att vara ute i god tid för att fånga upp vinstgenererande trendskiften på finansmarknaden!

Summa summarum: Många av oss har levt hela våra liv [0-T] i en tid när realräntor stadigt sjunkit. Jag tror nu det är dags att förbereda sig på en andra halva [T-2T] i en tid med stadigt stigande realräntor. Bara en total ekonomisk härdsmälta gör detta scenario osannolikt (om du frågar mig).

Potential Construction Projects Flow in 2011

During 4Q 2010, there were a series of positive news brought into construction sector. These news could possibly bring some cheers for local contractors during the "award ceremony" soon. To summarize it, let us examined and explored the news highlighted in 4Q 2010 for construction sector:-

OSK Research:
  • KL Mass Rapid Transit, with the cabinet approving 1 of the 3 lines proposed, which will run from Sg Buloh to Kajang. It is said that the Government will set up an SPV to fund the RM36bn job via bonds and other capital market instruments. Tenders for the Sg Buloh-Kajang line will be open in April while construction will commence in July. Gamuda-MMC JV, which was recently appointed as Project Delivery Partner, to be the ultimate beneficiary of the MRT. The JV is only allowed to tender for the tunneling works estimated at RM14bn.
  • Construction of the RM5bn Warisan Merdeka development is said to be slated to commence this year for implementation in 3 phases over 10 years. Amongst the local contractors, we think IJM is in the best position to participate in the tower portion given its track record with high-rise buildings in KL city center. Green building specialist Putrajaya Perdana could also benefit from the non-tower portions.
  • A feasibility study is currently being conducted to evaluate the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail and will be concluded by mid-year, which cost RM10-12bn. Magnetic levitation technology was being proposed. OSK gather that YTL Corp has made proposals for several portions of the project.
  • Brazail based Vale SA, the world's largest iron ore producer will invest RM467mil in Malaysia this year. The investment will involve the construction of a maritime terminal and distribution center to transport iron ore from Teluk Rubiah, Perak. We understand that Muhibbah Engineering is the only local contractor that has been pre-qualified for some of the packages.
  • Bintulu Port has been invited by Sarawak government to submit a detailed proposal for the Samalaju Port. If implemented, we think Hock Seng Lee could win some packages given its marine engineering expertise.
  • Malaysia and India have signed an MOU on technical assistance for road development which could enable Malaysian contractors to participate in the latter's projects. We see IJM as the clear winner from this MOU given its track record of building more than 1,400km of roads in India.
  • During the Big 5 International Building and Construction Show in Abu Dhabi, it was reported that some more than USD23bn worth of construction contracts are ready to be awarded in the UAE. We view WCT as the ultimate beneficiary from contracts flow from the UAE given its past record in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Qatar.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

2011 Malaysia Outlook: Sunshine to Sunset

By Finance Malaysia,
Driven by better economy prospects, Malaysia successfully escape recession two years ago, particularly March 2009. Strong GDP growth and numerous government's initiatives is the main reason why local market experiencing a spectacular run-up since then. Today, our KLCI break another record high, by closing at 1551.89 points. So, what is the outlook for Malaysia in 2011?
Maybank expects KLCI will hit 1,700 mark in 2011
KLCI
The Malaysia Index will continue to perform in line with the overall economy. More IPO will be issue. More merger & acquisitions activities will be seen. KLCI will be driven by the following factors:-
  • Improving sentiment
  • Follow through momentum from all time high
  • Hot capital inflows
  • Improving liquidity
  • Boost by plantation and oil & gas heavyweights, such as IOI, Sime and PetroChem
Preferred sector(s)...
  • Finance sector will continue to do well in line with the economy
  • 2011 will be a "Grammy Awards" show for construction sector, where government rolling out its multi-billion projects
  • Another show is from oil & gas sector, organized by Petronas
  • Property sector should continue chalking up sales with great demand
Sunshine to Sunset sector(s)...
Please take note that all is not so bright in 2011. Some of these sectors could face some turbulence in 2nd half of 2011. That's why I called it "Sunshine to Sunset".
  • Once high-flyers in difficult times, glove sector could be facing another whirlwind quarters with excess capacity and high input costs in the second half.
  • Besides glove, manufacturing sector would struggle because of electricity tariff hike imposed by TNB, speculating after Chinese New Year.
  • Technology sector will be a sunset sector next year due to stronger ringgit.
Bond market
Local bond market will boom, in conjunction with the projects awarding sessions and government's ambition to make Malaysia an Islamic financial hub. Local bond market will do well in the first half, before Bank Negara Malaysia resume its interest rate hiking policy later.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

MyFM's Jack Lim to open a Shopping Mall

Strategically located between Puchong, Seri Kembangan and Putrajaya, a new shopping mall within a park was planned to open in October 2011. Said to be first of its kind in Malaysia, the mall was dubbed as an one-stop outdoor living mart.

Popular MyFM DJ, Jack Lim (林德荣)
The Project:-
  • Undertaken by Green Atmosphere Sdn Bhd (GA)
  • Called "Garden Explore"
  • RM 20 million Gross Development Value
  • Occupying 5.9 ha of land area, which was leased from Tempo Properties Sdn Bhd for 10 years
  • Covering 7 major zones of outdoor retailing lots, a plaza and entertainment hall, offices, cafes, restaurants and one petting zoo
  • Construction will start work after Chinese New Year
The People Behind:- 
  • Radio Station MyFM's Jack Lim, director of GA
  • Former actor, Nick JM Wong, managing director of GA
  • Weng Zheng Steel Bhd chariman Tan Ching Kee, adviser
Source: Business Times, Bernama